RE:RE:RE:RE:War Breaking out in ME ............ Oil to $100+ on Monday malx1 wrote: Bigger picture -
Should ME conflict mushroom into multi-nation war, planet faces existential risk of depopulation through starvation.
Removing the politics from this discussion, it comes down to OIL.
Logistics: 21mm to 22mm barrels per day of oil and fuel is shipped through Persian Gulf, then Straight of Hormuz off SW coast of Iran.
Approximately 5mm barrels per day can bypass Straight of Hormuz by pipeline.
Using round numbers, an all-out ME war would remove at least 16mm barrels per day of Global Oil supplies.
That type of scenario would send oil prices up $160+ from today's $85, so you're looking at $245 per barrel, likely higher.
Pricing like that would collapse global economy, poorest countries would face mass starvation.
A scenario that's in the interests of nobody.
ME is much like a giant, dry forest harbouring people who have a tendency to carry multiple boxes of matches.
One wrong move, or poor decision, POOF; global stability collapses and we all go down in flames, directly or indirectly we collapse.
https://blog.fleetmon.com/2020/11/26/strait-of-hormuz-the-chokepoint-for-global-oil-demands/ Worth a read if you are interested in Global Oil Markets.
The whole world is walking on eggshells, nobody knows it; those that do know, they ignore risk.
Getting back to the GH discussion, we can see the strategic importance of Alberta's energy exports.