EIA Crude +10, Gasoline -1.3 Dist -1.8mLarge crude build.
US Crude exports plummet 1.9mm bpd.
Implied oil demand up.
Gasoline demand up.
Crude production inflated by rebalancing.
Neutral report.
WTI just under $85, up $1.40+ just prior to release. Oil UP 10.2 mm barrels (vs -0.2 exp and echoing API) – SPR – unchanged – Throughput – down 0.4 mm bopd week to week – Imports – up 0.1 mm bopd w-t-w – Exports – down 1.9 mm bopd w-t-w US implied oil demand (product supplied) rose by 509kbpd w/w to 19.666mbpd last week w/w changes in kbpd gasoline +567 jet fuel -216 distillate -145 residual fuel oil -102 propane/propylene -127 other oils +542 EIA data, week ending 10/6 - Crude oil: +10.2M Domestic prod: 13.2MMbpd SPR: NC Cushing: -0.3M Gasoline: -1.3M Impld mogas demand: 8.58Mbpd Distillates: -1.8M Refiner utilz: 85.7% Total exports: 10.1MMbpd EIA reporting a 10m bbl #crudeoil build driven by a 2mbd decline in exports to 3mbd. Production up 0.3mbd to a record 13.2mbd. Implied #gasoline demand (4wk avg) showed a small recovery but remains very weak on a seasonal basis. Refinery utilization slumped to a January low at 85.7% US crude imports by origin incl w/w changes in kbpd Canada +353 to 3544 Mexico +132 to 656 Saudi Arabia -224 to 67 Colombia +146 to 289 Iraq -59 to 247 Ecuador -125 to 0 Nigeria +46 to 46 Brazil +153 to 362 Libya -1 to 88 Implied gasoline demand right at (my own) expectation-8.6mbpd- a modest recovery shows that stations are ramping up purchasing, but still holding back a bit. Once there's a clear bottom to RBOB, I'd expect it to show a bit stronger. Crude +10.176MM, Exp. -1.4MM Gasoline -1.313MM Distillates -1.837MM Cushing -319K Production 13.2MMb/d, +300kbpd "This week’s domestic crude oil production estimate incorporates a re-benchmarking that increased estimated volumes by 370,000 barrels per day, which is about 2.8% of this week’s estimated production total." EIA drilling on paper. Reported US Crude Production vs Rig counts: