RE:RE:Outlook for the Birch.....I'll bite & respond to your reply Mr. Nhellofaguy, as you "seem" like an honest imvestor willing to discuss this in the "proper" way without shouting insults or branding me as a blantant basher. So i will respond in-kind to your comments.
nhellofaguy wrote:
"Your outlook for Birch is overly pessimistic."
Yes it is, no doubt about THAT and it is justified imho. But saying it's "overly" is a bit of strech, it is justfied based on FACTS. Also, to clear some things up, some things thagt "other" foolish investors have stated, i don't hate, dislike or bare ill will to Birch. I actually always LIKED the company......BUT they've made some "questionable" & bad decisions, and continue to do so that have put the company in dire straights....financially.
"First unhedged vs hedged, its always a gamble. Being unhedged last year"
Yes it is.....it's PART gamble! The rest is a combination of common sense, experience and being smart & perceptive to market conditions. Which unfortunately Birch mgmt failed to accomplish. Maybe they took TOO MUCH gamble in their decision making process and not enough basing themselves on XP & changing markets. I'm seriously, even I would have hedged SOMETHING when NG prices rocketed close to $10 at HH. Which as everyone & their grandma knows are levels which are unsustaonable for the world economies.
And in all honesty, if they didn't have the gumption or smarts to do it when ng was at $10, when prices started to fall back down, they should have started a "modest" hedging programme right THEN. Because everyone else did, and the smartest mgmt teams of the best managed ep's were "OVERLY" hedging in their risk mgmt portfolio when prices hit $8-$10 HH. The end result? Those that did are greatly benfitting now, those that "unfortunately" did not in a meaninful way, are in the same "difficult" financial position Birch finds themselves in.
"enabled BIR to pay down a big chunk of their debt. In Q2, they only increased debt marginally, less than $ 10 mill. So looking forward for Q3 report and 2024, I have no worry about the divident, and I think in the end, running the numbers myself, they should manage to pay off some debt in Q4 and end the fiscal year either at the same debt level or slightly better."
As for their debt situation, i don't know WHERE you are getting your numbers from BUT their totally off AND you're dreaming in 4KHD colors with 7,2 accoustic surround sound if you think their debt situation got better OR will get better. And i'll show you & the rest of the board CLEARLY why, just incase youe motives here are not true.....
Case in point & FACT back during that difficult period in 2020, Birch's debt was almost $1B which also includes decomm liabilities. Fast forward about two years, during the "hight" of their debt reduction accomplishments & achievements, they managed to bring their debt load from that REDiculously, toxic level of $1B to an OUT-Standing, manageable & VERY acceptable level of about $250M. Which is a VERY hard thing to do in such a short period. And i noted that fact by posting these comments back then......
https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.bir&postid=35024548
So those that say i HATE Birch, have absolutely NO legs to stand. Everything i say i based & justified on either merit or facts or all of the above. But going back to the debt issue, like i said, your numbers, presumptions & forecasts are completely off & wrong, and you ONLY need to see the balance sheet to know this along with having some basic understanding of mathematics. So if you can add & subtract....youll get it!
"In terms of buyout/merger I do not think the company is desperate."
I disagree with you here again. I think they are VERY desperate and to demonstrate this the best just look at the comments that the Ceo of Suncor just said. These Canadian O&G ep's are having a VERY hard time attracting capital to the sector & them. That's venture capital & investments with reasonable terms of course.....if there's even any decent amounts available out there. Ontop of all this, Birch IS LOSING money each qtr with Ng prices so low. Any heavilty weighted NG Canadian producer is. Nobody is making coin with prices at HH sub $3 *except for maybe Peyto!!!), and would go as far to say that they probably don't even slightly over $3. They need something like $4 these days to have some decent cashflow to pay expenses & keep a modestetly reasonable Capex.
As for all these comments about the divvy.....
"I have no worry about the divident"
"BIR does not need to cut the dividend"
"Perhaps 0.10 per quarter would have been a better choice, all water under the bridge."
"I think they were premature on their dividend increase."
As with the debt issue, these comments are all totally wrong EXCEPT for maybe part of the last one. As they should have never had one in the first place let alone increasing it at a time when they should have been reducing it or eliminating it completely.
I think with the comments you've made here Mr. nhellofaguy, you would have been a "perfect" fit for a managment position in the Birchcliff family at Birch HQ and a most loyal soldier following lock'n step with the rest of Birch mgmt's mentality & attitude down the destructive rabbit hole. And you would have contributed yourself in some small part to the destruction of the company also. As it in the process of happening NOW!!!!
I had other comments to make as well on different issues you brought up, but this is already longer than i wanted it to be and its taken a good amount of free time i have available on here. But i think you guys GOT the message here......it was quite clear.
GLTA