RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Seabridge does not have a permit for the MTTRockport,
Sea should bought the 3 Amigos 5 years ago. It was a no brainer even without factoring in MTT
Problem now is:
-Sea has a $1.2B market cap, the 3 amigos around $325M
-Would you sell for $1? I woulld not
-Id consider taking SEA stock at $2/share TOB, but thats massive for SEA - over 1/2 current market cap
-Usually the majority owner is the drivers seat of a JV, but given the long carry of CAPEX to production decision, it is the reverese here. That is why any hypotheitical takeout would be of the 3, not just TUD
What would you take per share in SEA shares ?
rockport1 wrote: Hey Larry, yes it would be nice if either nice if SEA or TUD published the MTT with the resource zones overlayed. However, given this is in the hands of lawyers, I doubt we will see anything at this time. From my own overlays working from public documents, it appears that the MTT runs over the NorthWestern side of Goldstorm, particularly over the CS600 zone. As drilling continues to expand northward, it puts the MTT route (Sep'2014) deeper into the deposit.
The MTT through Goldstorm appears to be from 300m - 500m below surface. You can do the math, but it looks like that is right through the eventual mine. The final mine planning will determine, but I assume there will be something like at pit from surface and perhaps block caving at depth. Seems highly unlikely one could safely engineer a tunnel through the mine area. In my opinion, the only practical option is a re-route.
Regarding the LoO. The issue for SEA appears to be that they were required to satisfy (negotiate) the prior rights claims holders (AMK/TUO). As far as I have seen publicly, this did not happen, which I interpret to mean they did not satisfy the limitations of the LoO. AMK/TUO were at the initial stages of drilling the Copperbelle zone and would require compensation to just drop such a promising prospect. In my opinion the onus was on SEA to negotiate an agreement to tunnel through their claims; SEA dropped the ball.
Now that 30 million ounces of gold and counting have been discovered, I don't see any way that this deposit will be steralized with a tunnel. The more I look into this, the more I believe the best option for SEA will be buyout Tudor. That would give thems so many more options than they currently have. An amalgamated mining plan with KSM & Treaty Creek could become very efficient and profitable.
Larry60 wrote: rockport1,
your post is helpful
I think both SEA & TUD have been non-transparent to the specifics of the route. I have a general idea from info ive seen in the past. What I dont have is, has anything changed since the 1st resource was announced over 2 years ago. Does the MTT run through any of the well drilled areas? I know it may run throgh some blocks that the resources are on, but I have always been led to believe that it was not actually under/through the resource.
If thats incorrect, Im shocked that TUD has not disclosed the details and also shocked that SEA has not disclosed details. Only exception would be CBS, but thats shallow so not sure why it would be an issue
As for metals that might be discovered? It does not come into play. If it did, there would be no mining anywhere as no rights of way would ever be granted.
Some other comments to other posters:
1) Fordster, I confirm (AGAIN) that I am NOT: i)short TUD, ii) long SEA, and iii) in any way connected to SEA either present, past or future (I cant predict the future, but no more likely to get a call from Rudy than you)
2) Some people have referred to the righ of way as contract. It is not a contract. It is a power that Provinces possess, and they use it ALL the time, especially wrt mining. Can you take govt to court? Sure ya can - if you want spend your money on Lawyers rather than drillers
Ultimatley, Id like to see a lot more disclosure on the tunnel issue. I still dont believe it puts current resource at risk. But please, TUD just put something out there on the tunnel route vs resource. IM BEGGIN YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Maybe put the IR team on it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
rockport1 wrote: I've found more detail fordster, and it does appear the originally proposed MTT route from 2014 does go straight through Goldstorm, Perfectstorm, and possibly even CBS/Orpiment. I did not see any documentation of an altered route that you say Rudy proposed.
The change of routing is still problematic. If they go further North, they would run into the GR2 area and the potenial of the Kyba Red Line. South takes it closer to Eureka. I can't see Tudor agreeing to sterilize these zones prior to sufficient exploration. It may be that SEA will have to choose the lesser evil in order to reach an agreement. I can't see it being cheap either way. This also assumes the geotechnical aspects are satisfactory.
On March 31, 2020, SEA did receive government approval to begin work on portions of the MTT. This did include TC claims: 390924, 392462, 392463, 392464, 392465, 251230. Essentially, this is work on the Saddle Portal of the MTT. It does not cover any sections with any known mineralized zones as far as I can discern. Unless there is additional approvals that I am not aware of, none of the defined zones have been affected. However, given that the MTT does run through these zones, how much work will Seabridge undertake with the complete route unresolved? It would be a gamble in my opinion.
fordster wrote: You've nailed it rockport...all you have to do is look on the map and see that it will goes through PSZ and GS. ...and yes, it's very unfortunate for Seabridge as people keep posting "it's a sure thing" on our BB:it's not...not even close. As you stated, AMK and TUO disputed it from the get go.
Rudy had said he'd changed the rout but he hasn't (there's no place to go unless he builds a covered road). Thus we have Tudor doing what Rudy claimed he'd do through the courts.