Average trading price since IPOHere are some useful numbers to get a sense of the offer price compared to the historical trading price of NBLY up until the deal was announced:
| Since June 2021 | $24.38 |
| Since start of 2022 | $22.22 |
| Since October 2022 | $20.11 |
| Since start of 2023 | $19.23 |
Since the IPO NBLY had two secondaries ex-private placement to PCP:
October 2021: 4.87 million shares at $30.75
March 2022: 5.18 million shares at $28.95
Collectively, the buyers of the above two offering represent 45% of the shares no owned by PCP. I would imagine the biggest resistance to the deal would come from these parties, assuming they are still holding their full position. Outside of that, looking at the average trading price, PCP will probably have a much better chance closing the deal at a price above $22, or somewhere at the mid-range of TD's far value assessment. Nonehteless, my guess the lack of liquidity will compel the majority of the minority to vote for the deal even at $20.5, but a couple of dollars more should eliminate any doubt.
Finally do keep in mind, 3.5M shares or just over 15% of the non-PCP shares have traded since the deal has been announced, the vast majority of these buyers are arbitrage buyers, as such they will certainly be voting for the deal.