RE:what I am watching 23-Q3I dont care about Q3 except cash. Positive FCf from ops is not guaranteed depends on capex etc..its not a big quarter for co, basically you measure this company annually not quarterly IMO. Q1 Q2 Q3 is not the main course, its the appetizers. Hedge funds will disagree of course, this is how they make money.
but I'm comfortable that if they finish at 135+ for 2023 and reach 150ish deliveries in 2024 and 2025, contineu to grow after market revenues, and control costs esp capex very carefully, they will be out of the storm and the sailing will be smooth. Even book to bill down to 0.8 can be managed IMO though its probsbly the most likely cause to panic and not to carry on to execute the plan. Whats the expression hold fast, stay calm and carry on?
Its easy to understand why: grosso modo illustrative purposes: $5B revenue 20% GM less expenses interest = no profit no free cashflow. $10B revenue same margins same overhead = $1B profit/free cashflow. Which in turn means debt goes down as does interest cost, more money to re invest etc...