Yes Poor Quarter but Hardly a SurpriseObvious after the release of Sept. 14th that it was going to be around a breakeven quarter.
Certainly not good . That is past us now and the stock price obviously reflected this. IMO
I guess most investors could do the simple accounting since that release.
So - if you have any faith in managements 4th quarter numbers and ongoing, it still looks like a strong buy. That is also if you believe gold price will stay or increase from where it is now.
Why.
If you believe in even the low range of the total year production and where the total year AISC will be (high end) , then you will get Net Income and Cash Flow figures similar or better than last 4th quarter.
The production will be a little lower and the AISC may be a little higher ( not that much with both) ,
but the average gold price was only 1769 4th Q of 2022. ( lot higher now)
I know we have about 5 million more extra for the goverment in Didipio but that is about it.
Here is the kicker OGC is 2.52 on TSX but all F/S figures are in US$ so you must either multiply them by 1.37 or deflate the price by 1.37.
So lets say US price is 1.84. (apples to apples)
Lets say OGX repeats 4th quarter numbers of last year ( probably be better if gold price holds and managements figures are even somewhat accurate)
That is 4 cents in NI and .12 in CF
That means in 2023 OGX will have made .18 in NI and .56 in CF
Doing the math that means a PE of 1.84/.18 or 10 and a P/CF of .1.84/.56 or 3.28
Pretty impressive numbers. for a company still not firing on all cylinders and supposedly having less capital expenditures for new growth ( not in AISC) for 2024 and 25
It will be interesting if the market agrees with my analysis tomorrow. They were pretty ugly numbers so may be a little negativity but I think that will fade if gold price holds and the number crounchers have a strong look. Again the caveat is always, if you have faith in management.