RE:RE:Consider thisI think you are $10 million or so high on that EV number. I also don't see how recent actions are likely to impact THTX's sales.Hard to disagree with your negative assessment of management based on what we knowl now. I think you overestimate the instability of sales and the company generally at this time but agree it will take some time for investors to overcome the shock of this deal so that may suppress the EV/Sales ratio for a while.
I am curious about who funded the the half of this deal opposite the Quebec government. My best guess is this deal was done to protect the board and management from getting tossed. Perhaps there was a hostile bidder lurking in the weeds that we do not know about but, if not, the board overreacted to the potential for legacy shareholders moving against them. Sadly, that may be the case.
I don't think management is as bad as their track record looks but it still is their track record. They are now entrenched as the Quebec government now stands guard over their leadership of the company. So, hopefully I am correct, theya re not as bad as they look and their luck will finally break in a positive direction for once. It sure has been an unbeleivably bad sequense of bizarrely negative events and missed opportunities over the last five years. There is normally reversion to the mean in business and the market but THTX somehow keeps putting more and more distance between itself and that mean.
It will be interesting to see to what extent insiders participated in the offering. Crushing the share price and selling out legacy shareholders to give themselves even more cheap shares then they get through options and to protect their jobs would be an unusually ugly look.
THobsv wrote: The market cap is $50mm, the share count just isn't updated yet. The EV is ~70mm, still a depressed price relative just to sales, but 1) we have less confidence in those sales given recent actions, 2) we should have a lot less confidence in management given this panicked and highly dilutive offering at the lows and 3) the upside to equity with a more normal valuation will be lower, because equity is a much larger % of the EV. Still 100% equity upside to a 1.5x EV/Sales multiple, but it does feel like any more material gains require options (1902, Nash) to pay off, and we have no new information there. The company still may not be stable enough to warrant a much higher multiple of sales.
I'd take more confidence in the "smart institutional investors funding at $1" if this weren't a government entity that perhaps has some kind of ESG/Impact angle and isn't a specialist in this space. Less confidence in their valuation work and their governance/oversight.
The main issue, as noted by so many on this board, are the continued missteps and poor communication and decision making of the management team. Cheap stock but with falling confidence in a management team with little regard for investors and poor capital markets expertise.
If tax loss trading - a reminder to do so on days where there is real volume - today is one. Could do a portion from earlier purchase lots to have maximum impact while not impacting your position too much.