RE:RE:RE:Consider this You're right, the EV is likely more like $60mm at the close today of $0.92. They had ~$40mm of net debt which is now ~$15 + a market cap of $45mm. So from today's close that is 133% upside to 1.5x EV/Sales.
I'm not suggesting recent actions will affect sales, but rather that their recent actions (downsizing, dilutive offering right after declaring positive adjusted EBITDA) suggest the possibility that sales may be coming in lighter - that may be what forced their hand.
It is also possible, as has been suggested, that management just wanted more cash/flexibility and new shareholders to help them retain control of the company, knowing their existing shareholder base is pretty fed up.
Perhaps they just realized they only had ~6 months before they got down to $15mm cash and they just wanted to remove the uncertainty at any cost to stay alive and Marathon was talking tough. They were also facing the prospect of principal repayments next year. They may also know there is no deal on the horizon for NASH or 1902, so they need to act now. I can't see why they would consider this if there was a deal in the works.
One issue today is that there are dozens of potentially interesting small/micro cap biotech stocks right now trading at negative enterprise values with no debt. We're back at the 2022 lows for the whole market. Yes, most of those have no core business or revenues to speak of, and are higher risk in one sense, but some of them have more potential upside, management that has real skin on the game (stock ownership), and no debt. Many of them also already have more institutional investors as holders. There appear to be a lot of companies that could go up 100% from here just on short covering, move lower in rates or a move back to where the stocks were a few months ago. So TH stands out a bit less after this dilution, unless there is a real reason for excitement on 1902 or NASH.
I took tax losses on 20% of my holding today at $1 (average cost ~$5 post split, but higher on those earlier purchases) and would consider adding that back perhaps 25%-35% lower from here so that there was still more material equity upside to a "normalized" valuation on the core business. But I'd definitely want to hear from management before considering that.
The company is clearly in a better financial position today, with more financial flexibility and time, but the equity upside has been materially impacted by the dilution. If we get to $0.50, perhaps that would be a time to be greedy as I did when I thought I was getting a good price below $1 a couple of months ago.