RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:well just maybeDJDawg wrote: Dr. Black represents the Canadian experience with Keydtruda which is not to use it. However, in the US and globally it is used enough for this indication that it gets quite good sales volume. The reason the slide deck likely includes it is that it is the only approved drug out there until recently (Adstiladrin is only just getting its sale up and running).
The best indication as to what the market thinks is the value of this indication comes from a few sources
1. Royalty Pharma recently paid 500 million for right to a 5.1% cut of Adstiladrin sales in the USA for the next 15 years. The only way to break even on that is if sales are anticipated at around 650 millon profit per year in just the USA. Royalty entire business model is about analyzing markets and demand and buying cut's of sales of things.
2. Immunity Bio: many thought they would get approved for their drug (drug combo really with BCG) and when they did not, the stock lost a billion dollars in market cap that day.
So overall, the sales and math for Ruvidar are solid and justify thinking of it as a high selling drug when that day finally comes.
Would anyone disagree on that?
Really appreciate those insights Dawg. Based on what Royalty Pharma paid, they appear to have strong conviction that adstiladrin will virtually replace keytruda in the US. The footnotes on the Market Opportunity slide are helpful and suggest potential global sales could be in the $1.5B range.