RE:RE:50% of BEAR Markets End in OctoberWont die until rates come down. I absolutely disapprove of how all this was handled. People continue to play with numbers when it suits their purposes and everything is always relative. For instance, 5 percent interest is usually really 7 or 8 percent. When we hear whatever the interest rate is it is usually 2 to 3 percent more but people look at 5 percent and in its infinite wisdom with 0 economy meaning supply chain shortages people in their infinite wisdom raisrd rates to cool a hot economy we dont even have. The prices of goods were already stupidly high due to the pandemic and really we have been in a recession ever since. Now even if the economy heated and things are getting pricy at least there would have been more things in the market and with it due to more production and glut relatively speaking prices should come down. But again those in their infinite wisdom have gone the opposite way are proud of their work saying inflation is now at 3.8 percent to 4 percent yet there isnt anywhere as much supply and production going on as there should be and prices of goods are still too high especially groceries and dining out. I have been a constant opponent as to what the Boc has been doing along with everyone else globally who have raised rates continue to do so or even hold them stating they still can be raised and that is what the Boc said. I have consistently said you need to drop them so people who have large amounts of capital and who are sitting on the side lines due to high borrowing costs can be enticed to start injecting that capital into the market. The Boc likes to have its head in the sand and says "mild recession" thats a good one!!! I would have fired them already. I dont think these guys have a clue what they are doing at least i dont see any wisdom in what those who have been yapping soft landing all along. There was and is no soft landing that is foolishness but a hard recession yes that has been and still is where things are. Anyways i am just really waiting for the rates to crash then i will say it will signal the beginning of the end of the bear. This cant come until more money is poured into the economy in all sectors despite earnings on a few giants like Apple Nvidia etc...you need huge earnings and products across every domain. So far tech is the biggest winner...financial and energy have sucked.
As far as this stock it is hard to say what will happen and when but i suspect there will be more and more defaults on mortgage payments and there will be toxic debt that will need to be dealt with. The big problem is who would have say a 5 to 8 percrnt inflation rate coming? There have been some people like the poster who stated this is worth like 80 pessos not dollars and slamming the CEO of mismanaging circumstances. That is truly an ignorant comment to say the least. All banks and financial institutions lend money out to people buying homes and typically have vigorous stress tests. To qualify for a mortgage just for a condo in BC Canada it was over 100k combined income which is quite onerus and quite a bit more for townhomes and houses. What i didnt and wouldnt still like is getting rid of 20k down that should have never been removed. It went to 5k and 0 inevitably which i believe it is still there. I would actually increase that to 40k down and have the financial combined thresholds because every quarter percent interest rate hike is very tough on people with mortgages i believe it is currently at 6.25 percent to 7 over here but for the longest times when we did not see this stupid inflation due to covid the rates of prime plus one were between 2 to 3.25 percent. When you look to see what has happened you have a 2 plus to 3.5 times increase in rates which has now resulted in what is called negative mortgage because instead of taking a typical 25 years to pay off it will take 40 plus years which the banks will no doubt accomodate however as i said i suspect that there will be a lot of defaults toxic mortgages needing to be written off for things to be less weighted down along these lines which as that and the interest rates drop both go hand in hand the bank stocks will rise. It really depends on the time it will take to deal with toxic mortgages otherwise the bank stocks are actually really good. Now is the time to keep adding actually. I am massively bullish on CM only thing is i dont have money sitting around to gobble up shares. I am also looking over a 15 to 20 year time window as i am 47. For me this or any other bank stock wasnt meant to look to trade in and out but to sit on the dividend and build bank on it. At the current rate of divie payout it will take 17 years for me to get my principle out and the rest is sheer profit. Like i said with bank stocks my time horizon is 15 to 20 years. When i am 67 plus my horizon on all stocks would change to more aggressive trading. I actually highly recommend CM to my Dad he is 77 and doesnt like to see "investments" take hits. I told him from what i can see this should hold $55 but if it goes less sell some shares because if your value of decline is more than 7 percent trim some shares back. He doesnt listen to me and his wealth planner likes to look longer term and doesnt really do anything so my Dad needs to. He is 77 once again his time horizon is a ? When people hit around 70 many start to say we dont know how long we have ahead of us and at that point possibly 5 years sooner one i my strongest opinion should look shorter term woth their monies as you have ? time horizon to recover. In any case, one has to move with intent and where they are in life and what their overall goals are. People do some crazy things with divies i forgot what it is called and they make supposedly massive amounts leveraging against them. It sounds complicated and too risky for me but these people claim they made millions using that strategy. I will look to the power of doubling on all stocks other than divies which i will sit on longer term at least for 15 to 20 years after which if i hold them which is most likely i will look to see my bottom strike point as i said to my Dad anything less than 55 sell. He bought around 55.5 to 56 plus change. I have a small amounts 127 shares at 58.08 but despite what i said am i impressed with the share value not at all unless i had money to gobble them up which is what i would have been doing. Nevertheless should this matter to me given a 15 to 20 year time frame and currently being about 16 to 18 percent down...not at all but the sorry to say ignorant comments kind of do because again nobody could have seen this coming. The rates could have been easily cut or held low but the stupid decision to raise them happened instead. If the rates were cut or held low i dont believe you would have this mess of negative mortgage and the potential of defaults and toxic debt. It is what it is though. So folks people who clearly dont know what they are talking about are best ignored. At these prices the shares are super attractive but bare in mind it will take some doing for these to go back up. The shares rose to 51 not too long ago i am willing to bet on anticipation of the Boc possibly cutting rates which didnt happen and the price started to sag when word from the experts were indicating the rates would likely remain unchanged for October and that was dead on. The stock seems to be stable around the $48 to $49 range but the Boc also said they can still possibly raise rates in which case this can potentially fall to 46 to 47/48. So ignoring ignorant comments everything with all stocks and more so financials has to do with raising rates because that puts the banks at greater risk to those who have borrowed money from them especially mortgages. There is no easy fix here. There have been few comments about banks cutting divie and a few mentioning Laurentien. What does that have to do with CIBC??? When i was looking up various banks RBC TD and CIBC over a 20 to 30 year period as to my recollection the divie rates actually kept going up. I cringe reading some of the comments here because i wonder just who are these posters? It seems like they are deliberately bashing on baseless comments. Folks do your due diligence smartly assess what people are saying and make a more informed decision.
Anyways this is my comment and opinion dont blindly take what i said fact check it and see if it makes any sense and simply smartly manage your shares in accordance to your intents and objectives nobody can tell you what thry are you need to be clear for yourself as there are infinite ways to dealing with stocks and managing your holdings. I agree with people who are saying bank stocks are now cheap which they are. Can they still drop? Absolutely rates go up share price will come down as stated. But conversely as rates get cut the shares will start to rise however there are toxic mortgages to be dealt with lurking at some point. I dont see $60 share for at least a year only because i suspect we will start to hear more and more mortgage defaults through this year into the next. Hopefully all that will be dealt with in the coming year so 2025 can start to move up but again to me this is immaterial unless we see a divie hike or a split and have more shares to work with.
Anyways it will be interesting to see where things go.