Q3 earnings - What's nextMore of the same really. The underlying business is performing very well. Ex L4 (our favorite 4 LSTK legacy projects) the EBITDA margin was a shocking 11.5%, surpassing the 9.7% in Q2, which was well above historical norms in its own right. A long-term investor needs some kind of position here below $10.
Having said that, this stock is the perfect candidate for tax loss selling over the next month (although I suspect some of that occured after earnings). To be a good candidate, you need to not be afraid that the stock will run away from you before you can buy it back. Right now there is no short-term catalyst for this stock to run. The analysts tried unsuccessfully to get management to put a range on further losses on the L4. They just refuse to give any color. But sometimes, actions speak louder than words. The financial engineering they pulled in order to extract $200MM from the Utilities segment to pay back the convertible debentures and get a cheap headline, telegraphed the Q3 LSTK losses for me. I think we can expect more of the same in Q4 given their refusal to even give an estimate.
Another worrying situation which could exacerbate the tax-loss selling is the market in general. The liquidation and abject disgust I'm seeing in some markets, like prefferred shares, REITs and dividend payers is like nothing I have seen in my career. In some cases worse than the financial crisis (and the recession hasn't even begun yet). We are talking about yields north of 10% for investment grade. So Aecon's 8% yield (I would note that management seems committed to the dividend) isn't going to support anything if the panic spreads.
I'm in the Jeremy Grantham camp. The worst thing for equities is when more than one bubble pops at the same time. That usually leads to a 50%+ decline in stocks. Japan 1989 (stocks and real-estate), USA 2008 (stocks and housing). Today however, we are in the process of popping THREE bubbles (bonds, stocks and real-estate). I don't think 2022 was the low for stocks.
So I would keep some powder dry, because I think you may see a price on ARE that you didn't think was possible. Of course if you believe everything is fine and we'll have a Santa Claus rally into year-end than go for it. The stock is cheap and the business is slowly becoming de-risked. remember that there have been some big awards that are not currently reflected in the backlog:
GO Expansion $2.5-$3.5B
Scarborough LRT $1B-$2B
Darlington SMR $1B
Most importantly, these are not LSTK, they are progressive-design buids (less risky).
Good luck