World Bank Oil Price Scenarios - Hamas Israeli WarFor what it's worth....
1.......No disruption - prices stay pretty much where they are now
2......Small disruption a la Lybian Civil War - $100 a barrel
3.....Medium disruption a la Iraqi War - $125 a barrel
4.....Major disruption a la oil embargo of 1973 - $157 a barrel
Big range to say the least.
IMO given that Biden seems reluctant to accuse Iran of much and there is virtually no talk of SA or the gulf states reducing oil supplies and Russia needs to sell as much oil as possible, the most likely outcomes would be 1 or 2.