My thoughts on Q3 for BIR. This evening I took the numbers from BTE Q3 report and presentation and transpose them on BIR. Assumption here is BIR production in Q2 is similar to Q3. In US dollars BIR reported Q2 oil at 73.78 and nat gas at 2.10. In Q3 BTE reported oil at 82.26 and nat gas at 2.55 (again US dollars). For Q4 BTE is conservatively (IMO) oil at 84.00 and nat gas 3.00 (both US dollars). My sense and hope is that BIR revenues are up in Q3 from Q2 by 12-16 %. I hope that with this, they can cover their expenses (capital program) and come close to funding the dividend. In Q4 which we are presently in, they should be able to cover expenses, fully fund the dividend and perhaps pay down debt a bit.
The other thing I want to comment on, is the recent downward target prices by the analysts, and it was curious that three analysts downgraded the target price on the same day (hmh, makes one wonder what is going on), while knowing price of NG was going up.
My final thought, with the retirement of the CEO, changing of the card and all of the strange behaviour of this stock, it makes me wonder if something is up for Q3 or Q4. However, if nothing is up, I would really like to see BIR implement a modest hedging program (e.g. 30% of sales) and perhaps switch the dividend from quarterly to monthly (same amount) my sense is that both of these efforts would to some degree improve the share price and appeal of the stock to some investors.