RE:Thoughts on MOZ going forward....metalhead666 wrote: The institutional tax loss selling is likely over. There could be some residual retail selling for another few weeks but given the strong bounce off the lows I don't think it will be meaningful. By Jan buying should resume and the selling for tax reasons will be over. The "January Effect" where people buy back their tax loss shares could be in full swing. 2024 should get off to a good start for MOZ
The "dovish" FED and the weakening jobs number are tailwinds for gold and could well shift miner sentiment from extreme bearishness to at least neutral if not full on bullishness. Rallies in gold miners can be ferocious like in 2016 which saw quick doubles and triples. I don't think we need be concerned with either inflation or rates going forward.
MOZ remains ridiculously cheap. At $2000 gold the NPV is $1 Billion. MOZ trades at 20% of that currently. Given how far along construction is, the finalization of remaining financing coming soon and some possible excitement coming from the Frank Zone drilling possibly adding another pit, MOZ should easily trade at 60% of NPV if not more.
If I had to pick a target price for the next 6-12 months I'd say $1.25 is quite doable. By commercial production declaration 1x NPV is reasonable giving MOZ a price of $2 even if equity is used for the final financing. More than a triple from here.
Given all the dysfunction in the world, the probability of recession, insane amount of government borrowing etc I think gold will take out all time highs and approach $2500 or more by the time MOZ is in production. A perfect storm timing wise. A $2.50 or better price handle is doable.
The probability of a takeover is growing by the day. There aren't many projects like this out there and a mid tier or major would be stupid to not consider buying the company on the cheap now. While I prefer to go the distance I'd take a $1 offer and move on
Bottom line is that a lot of the headwinds we've face are now tailwinds. There's little possibility of a renewed dump and a very high probabiility of a sustained rally back towards a "fair" valuation nearer to $1.50 than not.
Winter will be quiet as it always is but we do have some drill results to look forward to as well as updates. Come Spring and Summer we'll be nearing the finish line so if you can be a little patient and continue to accumulate at bargain prices I think you'll be greatly rewarded.
I see few risks now and a lot of reward. I wish I had the tolerance for more risk and bought more than I did but I don't trust much these days.
I wouldn't spend much time fretting about the short term ups and downs....MOZ is on track now, is cheap, is a takeover target, will trend towards 1x NPV and at a minimum you should expect an easy double from here and a triple or better as we near production and if gold continues higher over the next year or so.
All good. Same reasoning for ARTG which I hold and for SKE although SKE is going through it's MOZ selloff tantrum for the time being. IAU looks cheap but I favor open pits
decent post.
tC