A more balanced SP for the next months A more balanced SP in the 20-23$ range for the next months
Airlines faces many headwinds and the market responded in the past months by a unpredictable low for Air Canada. But the Air Canada Q3 results and the ''stable'' demand comments in the Conference call show the strenght of the Air Canada niche.
The 2023 performance was the result of the ''pent-up'' demand phenomenom, in a favorable environment for a large part of the year (first 6-8 months). 2024 could be slightly different. With the emergence of new headwinds since the summer, the 4 B$ EBITDA forecast could be a high.
On the other side, the diversification of the AC markets (domestic and worlwide), the large customers types ( business, caribean vacationers, leisure) and the Aeroplan flexible advantages, Air Canada faced adverses winds with strengths.
Interesting situation ahead.
A balanced SP level could be in the 20$ -23$ range in the next months. Its operations being seasonal with a peak in Q3, I don’t expect a return in the mid 20$’s before obtaining solid indications (bookings) about Q3 2024.
The market is tought with airlines; it’s a ‘’show me the numbers’’ story.
For the long term; the niche and the financial position are strong, immigration will fuel the business; the analyst’s targets are realistics.