RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:WTI 200mda $76.75Experienced wrote: Think you need to reread this thread....start with your own original thesis about the calm befpre the storm
1.... read what you said about Taiwan in your first post suggesting that a conflict there would raise oil prices. I agree with you that China doesn't have the firepower to win. I actually talked about this in a post a long time ago. My point is that the vulnerbility of the West to Taiwan semi conductors could lead to a recession and lower energy prices if production capacity was affected in the conflict. China could certainly do that if they wished, albeit with dire consequences.
2....I didn't say we would have 20% interest rates. What I was getting at is that your statement about the Fed printing money is just plain wrong. Right now the Fed is doing the exact opposite. Government (US) will borrow the money it needs as they are doing right now and the size of the borrowing could crowd out private sector borrowing like it did in the early 80s (read rhyme here) and this will keep interest rates high for quite a while and this will limit economic growth and with that lower economic activity comes lower oil prices and also asset prices (read stock market).
All that aside, my point in my original post in simple terms is that your argument about the calm before the storm for the reasons you outlined are not valid even from the perspective of Econ101.
1. if you claim what i've said, please provide my actual quote(s) what i've really said instead of making up what i have said in my first post. I made no reference to any oil price, nor its increase or decrease.
Again, you double talk, often in oxymoron tense. You agreed with me that china doesn't have the military might to take taiwan but yet, in the next sentence, you fear vulnerbility to western economy due to china but without stating the basis of that fear. You're trying to cover both sides so you can be right regardless of outcome i guess. Typical salesman/conman tactic without knowing it because it's been done so often it's natural.
2. of course u didn't say 20% interest rate, i said that, you're too chicken to put any rate number down or get specific in your post, I'm also not talking about fed action in next 2 weeks. My investment scope is beyond 2 weeks. Oil price increase doesn't have to depend solely on constant economic growth. Most price forecasters don't consider supply disruption and/or lack of capital re-investment in O/G in their model