Effect of seasonalityCame across this graphic today. It presents the effect of seasonality on the price of oil, based on 24 years of data. What I think is interesting is the average month to month % change. I think the average price is less meaningful in the current hyper inflationary environment.
If the down trend in the price of oil continues as the graphic suggests, undoubtedly we will see tax loss selling in CPG and others this year. Something I wasn't expecting to see as just a few days ago. It may be wise to sell now, book the loss, buy back in 30 days at lower cost, and ride oil prices as they start moving higher in February. Of course with 2024 being an election year... who knows how this will play out. Would be interesting to see a similar chart based on data of US election years only.
