jwillis: the thing is we dont' know if the surprisingly highproduction numbers over the last half of oct were a results of filling up barges as a way of storing oil, rather than their ability to transport the oil all the way to manuas. i.e they fill the barges up and let them venture downstream as far as possible until they basically park them until they are able to proceed.
Who knows, perhaps they are able to make it all the way to manuas. But given the record low water levels at places like the port de tabatinga one wonders if it is possible. I don't know either way. Brazilian gov't has started dredging certain trouble spots( found it on google--articles 3-4 weeks ago) so perhaps they are able to deliver the oil. Don't know. My point is just because they load it onto barrages, doesn't necessarly mean they are delivering it. The LSE BB has people discussing such things.