RE:RE:RE:RE:The Middle East is a bigger problem each dayWell we have had many guys like you come and go since March 2020 all predicting an impending drop in the economy. It's not just a few. Like more than 50, especially in the early recovery out of the pandemic.
The reality is that the general market is a leading indicator. It's the device that takes all the available data including the few small data points that amateur investors like us focus on and synthesizes them into a price that is a prediction of the future as far out as they can see, usually 9 months or so. And that market continues to trade sideways or up. So unless you are seeing something special that all the professionals with billions of dollars at stake can't see, I'm more inclined to believe that than headlines and another recession mongerer on stockhouse.
Historically, the US market is very strong in an election year. The sitting government knows its fate is strongly tied to the economy and puts a lot of extras into it which drives returns. In fact, a recession is a much worse event in 2024 than high oil prices for Joe Biden. So historically and statistically, the balance of probablity is skewed to "no recession" rather than recession.
Joe is in a tough spot with the ongoing wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. I think he's working overtime on diplomacy right now knowing that his political fate hangs in the balance. Politically speaking, he cannot afford an all out Middle East War, and he knows Putin and Saudi would take advantage of the situation as well.
I remain bullish short term and definitely medium to long term.
Retiredgeo wrote: I'm no global economist either. I just listen to what the gurus say and most of them have subdued predictions for 2024. I see the oil traders just piling on to the band wagon. Why now? - maybe China was the excuse to sell. Will others follow? Dr Copper is already down 10% from last summer's high.
With an inflation rate of 5% your cash is losing buying power at 5%/year. I don't have any recommendations but cash is a losing bet.