Potential Outcomes at 76 patients - wow !Figure 4 in the latest paradigm report (reach out to IR if you haven't already received your copy)
Shows outcome at various current ARR (absolute risk reductions) to projected ARR assuming no additional PMX efficacy
For example if current ARR is at 30% the worst they could end up is 17.7% (with only 7.6 needed per the Kellum paper)
The way the Paradigm author puts it....
From this analysis, EDT only needs to show a 7% absolute risk reduction (ARR) for the 150-patient TIGRIS trial to have a 96% probability of showing an overall benefit of PMX over standard of care, assuming the results from the prior 179 patients from EUPHRATES are given a 75% weighting. If the current TIGRIS ARR is ~15%, which is reasonable given management’s continued statements that the results are exceeding expectations, PMX could have no additional benefit for the remaining 74 patients and the final ARR would be ~7.6%, above this 7% threshold
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I have no inside info...but I suspect that we are above 20% ARR currently in Tigris.
I suspect the more patients they add to Tigris, the faster they get to a projected final of > 20%. I suspect 20% might be a magic number that would result in a much higher ultimate market acceptance and possibly selling price for PMX.
JME&HO DYODD.
MM