RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:A fine quarter , a little timing difference in cash flowBERationale wrote: I will give you the benefit that they produced 124k barrels more than they sold / held in inventory so call it FCF understated by C$15mm in Q3. Still FCF of ~C$10mm when oil averaged US$88/bbl in the quarter is pretty dismall for a 20k boe/d producer ... and where the stock currently trades, equates to only an 11% FCF yield vs lower risk Canadian producers that are double that. The smart money is latching on to the fundamentals and until management can show opex of sub $30/bbl again it will be back to being a show me story. Make no mistake Q4 results will look stellar with the sale of excess inventory (and retail will get excited again like Q2/23) but its easy to stay on the sidelines until mid March (or until the stock has a 15%+ FCF yield). Just being real. DYODD GLTA
Can you name me some Canadian offshore oilers ?
You extrapolate the 11% fcf yield for the year, which is not really convincing.
Your (smaller) peers...most of them are struggling along with fcf once a year, when they can not drill and most of them pay no taxes, because of Nols (I have the Inplays, Yangarras, Bonterras etc. in mind).
A further problem Valeura had this Q was : They drilled Manora, where they get only 70% of production. And more important...they drilled Wassana, which had fantastic results, but they got no production for it. So there are missing probably around 1500 bpd...which would have brought you closer to your magic fcf yield.