RE: Growth cycle in EVs will expand further in 2024I've tried to find the clip but I am not succeeding, however, it was Elon on Rogan speaking to the potential growth of EVs.
I will get the numbers wrong somewhere here but the gist is the thing.
He offered a premise that, suppose "today" all ICE vehicles ceased to be built and instead, all production - worldwide - was instantly making EVs. Utterly fanciful, but the thought experiment illustrates the issue perfectly.
According to Musk, worldwide ICE production is in the range of 100 million vehicles a year. Googling says 80 million but lets keep the numbers simple.
Musk continues that there are 2 billion ICE vehicles on the world's roads at present. Googling again says 1.3 in 2021 rising to 2.2 by 2030. Sooooo, call that one pretty close as well, to do the math.
2 billion divided by 100 million gives you twenty years needed to replace the current fleet of ICE vehicles if all production were today dedicated to the task. As fanciful as that would be even in a decade or three.
By your own article: "Automakers in the US are expected to sell four million EVs by Q3 2024."
Worldwide? Google says 10.5 million - to keep the numbers simple and stay focused, we will call it 10.
Just 10 million. When we need 100 million a year for 20 years to simply replace ICE vehicles.
And, the biggie - the EVs need gargantuan subsidies from the taxpayer to get someone to buy as it is. By your article, some $7.5k per vehicle.
$7.5K times 10 million vehicles (let's assume there's no magical EV fairy that can get someone to buy without that incentive) and you get $75 billion, per year, in subsidies worldwide if the tenants of the article hold.
At 100 million vehicles to replace our 2 billion fleet presently it would be in the order of three quarters of a trillion dollars per year, every year, for 20 years.
One medium-sized average hospital by the way costs about $100 million. In hospital math, three quarters of a trillion a year, for 20 years, is 7,500 hospitals we forgo for EV subsidies.
Ain't even conceivable. They're lying to you.