TSX:AX.PR.E - Post by User
Comment by
Mongoose1234on Nov 29, 2023 10:47am
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Post# 35758552
RE:Mongoose
RE:Mongoose foolish might be the wrong word, i think a more accurate description would be probably mis understood.
Buying on margin puts you on a timeline (margin interest or even a LoC is quite substantial right now)
what if, Artis cuts the dividend, and then you're sitting on no cash flow and cash outflows. you are now playing a negative waiting game.
The turnaround plan could very well take a longer time than expected, so in my opinion, and there is a LOT of uncertainty around the timeline.
(in my opinion, there is less risk about the stock price than about the timline). i do think the price will increase on the units, as i do think the NAV is higher than the stock price. but it's a question of when....and by using margin, you are making an inherent bet for a quick turnaround.
Not one i'd be willing to make, too many factors that are too hard to forecast.
in other words, margin on this stock is very risk. your risk of positive cash flows is high (div cut) and for the tlmeline (taking a long time).
i think with a stock priced like this, there is enough upside anyways that a margin bet is not necessary.
Proof: look at snake. he's just pounding his feet and throwing a temper tantrum as he's sitting here with a big (losing) negative margin position
Also - i think most people are not really anticipating the effetcts that come Jan 1, 2024, buybacks are toast. Companies will no longer use buybacks as they are now taxed, and thus making them a pretty inefficient use of capital allocation.
wait until snake hears that there are no more NCIB's or SIB's past 2024, haha
i cant wait for that rant on trudeau and the MAN. he'll be protesting against the MAN.
seriously, i suspect that he will think the goverment is out to personally sabotage his REIT portfolio with their share buyback tax. haha