Venzuela Guyana SpatIt supposely moved oil up abit today, Venzuela supposed to have a referendum on sunday, potentially taking over territory that is Guyana;s currently or offering citizenship..nothing is quite clear.
Hard to say if Venzuela even has the military capability to do anything. They spend only 700-800m a year on their military. They dont really have any fighting ship capability, just a few subs,
And in hard forest terrian, Guyana wouldnt need that much USA weapons to defend themselves. Just need to cover a few roads.
From an oil price perspective these wars are bad for oil.
Russia still be in Ukraine isnt great for oil as Russian cant fund their monthly military costs without alot of oil sales....hard for them to contribute to OPEC cut.
Russia has cheated many months on their quotas. The war is forcing alot of oil exports even in refined product again.
I peg the odds of the meeting coming to this result:
50% rollover of existing cut, maybe all of 2024
30% of a .5m to 2m barrel cut
20% to a production hike from Saudia to teach Russia and others a lesson on quota compliance.
This meeting really is a massive thing for how Decemeber will go.