Oil to SPOil is climbing back up and has been now for a few days. From $72.05 recorded on November 16th to $78.57 as of this morning. The total change is 9.2% and counting. The problem I have is that in the same period BTE is up/down 0%. It closed at $5.21 on November 16th. So the only metric that actually matters indicates that the sp at the moment is not corelated to the price of oil if oil is climbing BUT heavily corelated if oil is dropping.
My first impression was to assume that even at $78, Bte is in danger as it needs a hgher oil price to remain viable but that s not the case. BTE is profitable with oil in the low $40s. Then I thought that maybe it's the actual builds, but to date this year we have an accumulated 22 million barrel build is a drop in the bucket. Seasonality maybe? Nope as it's based on crude output. Tax loss selling? Nope as we are roughly where we were at the start the year insofar as sp is concerned.
Anybody here want to tell me what is going on?