RE:Various thoughtsDJDawg wrote: The PP success or lack of success
- this was a shot in the foot moment of TLT
- price was 0.25, then announced LIFE offering, which triggered big selling. Selling may have been by those who wanted cash for the LIFE offering but more likely was a lot of selling by people who were afraid of the price falling because of people selling (vicious loop here)
- LIFE was not successful, likely because newbies are not going to jump onto a new stock that has dropped from 0.25 to 0.17 (32% !!) in days AND is on the sketchy TSX venture exchange. I have a friend who works for an institutional investor and they avoid TSH venture stocks like the plague. So less institutional buy in as well.
- so LIFE triggered big sell off but then LIFE not filled due to big sell off (IMO)
- next they convert to a private placement but now all the usual investors are saying "WTF, we participated in the last few PP's and just keep losing". Keep in mind that the last few PP's were at 0.25 and they are looking at 32% drop and yet being asked to pay a 0.22 entry point for a stock currently at 0.17. I can see why they would sit out that round.
- so that makes PP underwhelming at 1.17 million.
- another entertaining example of TLT's ups and down (mostly downs though)
Cash situation
- people who can read financials better than me indicate that we now have a runway of 4-5 months. That may help the stock price a bit. Who knows.
Clinical trial data
- one reason that the clinical trial data is not a huge change is that THEY JUST DID A TRIAL UPDATE Oct 16. Not enough time has passed for the data to change much. I have updated my powerpoint screenshot. As Eog pointed out there is a nice wave of green moving from left to right :)
https://i.postimg.cc/9X6hZycL/Nov-29-observations-on-clinical-trial-data-TLT.jpg
BTD situation
- I have spend hours reading the BTD process to understand it. It is confusing, partly because they actually give the FDA reviewing staff LOTS of latitude. From what I can tell from reading various experiences is that you don't really submit a pre-BTD application in the formal sense. They don't seem to call it that but I'm guessing TLT calls it that to make it less confusing. You mostly meet with a reviewer and show them the data to get feedback on whether you are ready for BTD application. They often say that you have a better chance if you add in a,b and c. You then get a, b and c and check back in as to whether you look good to go.
- as such, I'm guessing that they did this first step, were told that the application would be stronger with 18m data as well. I'm guessing that they were told that a central pathology review was a good idea. The FDA has never seen a NMIBC treatment protocol like this so perhaps the random reviewer suggested the central pathology review as a way of being really certain.
- I do feel strongly that the BTD will happen but that the delays are because of data points that TLT has to chase down or wait on. Still really lousy.
Stock price going forward
- who knows? Maybe all the sellers who got out with the LIFE announcement will gradually swing back in now that a small pool of money on board and the clinical data is solid. Or maybe they have no faith in management and won't come back. My own hunch is that most who would sell, have sold and the rest of us are holding long.
Other things
- I like the website that popped up Oct 28 showing Dana-Farber (Harvard) oncology being a trial site in the future. They could use the Harvard reference for a tiny pr boost.
So that is my longwinded opinion. Love the science, not impressed by the management. Have a great day.
Dawg, good oberservations. I'll chime in and offer my take on the failed LIFE offering.
Between Oct 15 to 31st, short interest spiked from 68K to 1.14M. The sp collapse orchestrated by the shorts appears to have contributed to undermining the LIFE offering.
With no lock up period and a known .22 ceiling, those looking to participate in the LIFE offering, intending to dump their shares flat and ride the 5 year wts were probably concerned /scared off by the sp plunging to .16 - .17. Capital has not fared well with Theralase and investors are looking to ride free warrants with limited or no capital exposure. From their perspective this is all about getting cheap or free lottery tickets.
The suppressed sp also hampered the non-brokered pp for the reasons you outlined. Current weak sp thanks to the short attack, exacerbated by announcement of failed LIFE, and all prior pp's done at a higher sp.
The problem with how these situations play out is why brokers and seasoned investors avoid this exchange. It's easy to orchestrate a death spiral in which each subsequent raise is heavily shorted, demoralizing/eroding investor interest, forcing companies to take whatever funds they can get from a closed offering only to find themselves a few months later in a renewed liquidity crunch. Thus having to to do raises at lower and lower prices to generate investor interest, which causes extreme dilution.
Many here don't want to believe that scenario could ever happen to Theralase but it sure as hell can happen if this management doesn't take the threat seriously and use this current cash runway to sign some kind of regional licensing deal, even if it's not on good terms. The science is so promising but the real lifeblood of this company and for shareholder security is the company's ability to shore up its ongoing terrible liquidity situation.
My hope is they realize BTD approval may not be a near term silver bullet due to the whims and bureaucracy of the FDA and are actively utilizing Dr. Lbiati's expertise to get a deal done prior to this current cash runway ending, which, if we use the breakdown in the LIFE offering document, could be around March.. Just my take on a very frustrating situation.