RE:Guyana is done for.... idiots upped the price on exxonoildarts2, Oh I believe that the world will need both Guyana oil and Venezuela oil. Like you say, transition away from Persian Gulf supply. As I understand it, Guyana light crude is great to refine gasoline out of. Venezuelan heavier is great for diesel, kerosene etc. When you look at the prices of heavy and light crude, heavy crude has in recent months been higher than light, except for Western Canadian Select (wcs) which has a steep discount applied to it because of the increased transportation costs of delivering oil from pipeline starved Canada. They should never have cancelled the Keystone pipeline. But Venezuelan heavy can fill any supply shortfalls.
For integrated majors the E&P costs of Venezuelan heavy are much less than in Canada so their netbacks would be much higher. I'm waiting to see concrete evidence of the major oil and oil service companies ramping up operations in Venezuela. One thing that Americans excel at is mobilizing huge amounts of resources/equipment in very short time frames. My contacts in Venezuela are saying that it looks like things are picking up.
Increased output of heavy crude out of Venezuela would affect heavier oil prices but I can't see how it would affect light oil prices. As for cgx, they have the sp pretty much collared in a tight range because of lack of volume. The sp is easy to collar. They are not saying anything that might increase the bid interest. So it's hard to figure out where the sp might go on, say, great results from Haimara and Bluefin.