Lithium price rout deepens with battery metal now down 75% this year. A supply glut has pushed down prices in 2023, after they surged in the previous couple of years. The global lithium market won’t return to deficit until 2028, according to forecasts from industry consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Elevated interest rates are also leading to uncertainty over global EV demand, with some automakers rethinking their strategies. “With lithium supply growing more next year, we are likely going to see prices falling further,” said Allan Ray Restauro, analyst at BloombergNEF. “On the demand side, some regional differences on EV sales have been dragging sentiment down around the industry.” SQM, the world’s No. 2 lithium producer, warned investors last week the downward price trend could continue for the rest of the year. Albemarle Corp., the biggest miner, said earlier this month that some producers have started to rein in operations as prices fall below reinvestment economics.
On November 3, The AFR reported:
Albemarle pulls back on lithium M&A, flags output cuts...New York-listed Albemarle is cutting capital expenditure and will stay away from large-scale acquisitions amid concern about the slump in lithium prices.
On November 15, SQM announced: "SQM reports earnings for the nine months ended September 30, 2023." Highlights include:
- “SQM reported net income(1) for the nine months ended September 30, 2023 of US$1,809.5 million compared to US$2,755.3 million for the same period last year.
Australia’s largest lithium mine flags output cut on weak China demand. Greenbushes, Australia’s largest hard rock lithium mine, may be forced to reduce production as prices for the key battery metal collapse on lower Chinese electric vehicle sales.
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this up and down lithium price movement is similar to the pd price the last few years, amd recent production cuts. i don't see lithium going back to where it was because so much supply is in the pipeline. lithium is everywhere in the world
if battery ev sales increase at a moderate pace, and hybrids continue strong growth, we may see $1400 pd and with some luck, maybe even genm's feasability pd price of $1800