Q1 The cuts mean that the surplus everyone was forecasting for the first quarter of 2024 has now disappeared. In its place will be a deficit, though small.
ING Bank sees this coming first-quarter deficit as lending some upside to oil prices. With that in mind, ING sees some upside in its current $82/barrel forecast for the quarter and its $88/barrel full-year 2024 forecast.
Whether there is actually an upside, says ING, “largely depends on how OPEC+ goes about unwinding these cuts and obviously on how demand plays out next year”.