RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Lng price when kitimat opensAs others have mentioned.
Almost all the N. American LNG exports are priced to the consumer at HH+Liquidfaction costs or to an exporter at JKM or TTF.
It really doesn't matter what the LNG vessel gets if you are a just selling the molecules and don't own the gas on the shop. You don't get JKM. There is lots of margin in there. LNG is profitable as long as HH doesn't get to within $3-4 of TTF/JKM. That's when loads start getting refused and the supply gas doesn't get mopped up. The ships can also get resold at spot, if the destination doesn't have storage capacity as China did during 2022 with their warm winter.
LNG right now isn't really a game changer and as we are seeing is skewed to the downside with recent delays. The supply comes online first and if the facility gets delayed then we end up with a surplus. Just like what has happened with Golden Pass.
AECO won't approach JKM or what have you because LNG isn't the marginal user. It's base load. You have an extra couple BCF of demand in Canada and supply might be high for a couple years but after supply and demand are balanced its a non factor in price. Right now futures pricing for AECO has 2025-2027 pricing in at $3.50/GJ down from $4.50-5.00 after the massive surge in US production showed that the marginal supply cost was lower than that.