Ministers and negotiators must come to the vital final meetings of Cop28 without prepared statements, without rigid red lines, and be prepared to compromise, the president of the UN climate summit has said.
Sultan Al Jaber, whose position is now pivotal to the talks as they enter their final days, on Sunday convened a majlis of all countries, a meeting in the traditional form of an elders’ conference in the United Arab Emirates.
The climate talks have reached an impasse over whether to phase out or phase down fossil fuels, with just a day and a half of official negotiating time left before the fortnight-long summit is scheduled to conclude on Tuesday morning.
“I want everyone to come prepared with solutions,” said Al Jaber, who has faced criticism over his other role as head of the UAE national oil company, Adnoc. “I want everyone to come ready to be flexible and to accept compromise. I told everyone not to come with any prepared statements, and no prescribed positions. I really want everyone to rise above self-interests and to start thinking of the common good.”
But there is some optimism coming from the discussions. Catherine Abreu, the executive director of Destination Zero, said: “In eight years of attending climate talks, I have never felt more that we were talking about what really matters. Hearing ministers from all around the world talk straight about the realities of phasing out fossil fuels is something I could not have imagined happening in this process even two years ago.
“What’s clear after this Majlis dialogue at Cop28 is that there is overwhelming consensus that phasing out fossil fuels and scaling up renewable energy is absolutely necessary to hold to the promise of the Paris Agreement and keep the hope of 1.5 alive. It is also clear that the task ahead is enormous, and will require courage and conviction. Rich countries need to provide the financial and technological support to make it happen, and equity demands that those with greater responsibility move first.”
The question of the future of fossil fuels is the main sticking point, but not the only one. Developing countries are also angry that their calls for help with adapting to the effects of the climate crisis have not been answered by rich countries at the talks. Adaptation finance refers to the funds needed to improve the infrastructure of poor countries, for instance to set up early warning systems of storms or other extreme weather events, or stronger bridges that do not wash away in floods, or help to grow mangrove swamps to protect coastlines.
Any “balanced package” coming out of the talks will need to contain far greater reassurances on adaptation funding – poor countries have long sought a doubling of the finance available – than has currently been tabled.
Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at the Climate Action Network, a coalition of almost 2,000 climate groups, expressed concerns at the draft text on adaptation, arguing that although “the finance gap is highlighted, and developed countries are urged to double finance from 2019 levels by 2025 … the text doesn’t reflect the urgency or mention the latest UN adaptation gap report which said finance for adaptation needed to reach $194-366bn (£155-290bn) a year”. He said he was also worried there could be more delay to setting specific measurable targets for global adaptation, which is key if the summit is to be meaningful.
Al Jaber reassured developing countries that their voices were being heard. “We will not neglect any issue, we will not neglect or undermine or underestimate any of the views or the national circumstances of any region or any country,” he said.
The Guardian understands that Al Jaber held meetings on Sunday with all the major groups of developing countries, including the Alliance of Small Island States, who are pushing hard for an unequivocal phase-out of fossil fuels, the Basic countries, the least developed countries and others.
On fossil fuels, the possibility of agreeing a full phase-out of fossil fuels is still on the table, but is under fierce attack from Saudi Arabia and some other oil-producing countries. However, China appears to have shifted position from blocking such a commitment to seeking a compromise.
Before the talks began, Al Jaber said he was cooperating closely with Saudi Arabia, a neighbour and close regional ally of UAE, to try to get a deal. He reported then that the country was engaging “constructively, with positivity”.
In the final days, countries are relying on Al Jaber to broker a “balanced package” that addresses fossil fuels, keeps the vital goal of limiting global heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels within reach, and meets the financial needs of the developing world.
He called on all countries to step up. “We have a unique opportunity, it is our opportunity to deliver an outcome that is based on the science lead by the science and equipped by the science that keeps 1.5C within reach. And that will help transform economies for generations to come,” he said.
He added: “Failure, or lack of progress, or watering down my ambition is not an option. What we’re after is the common good.”
Diego Pacheco, chief spokesperson for the Like-Minded Group of Developing Countries that includes China and India alongside oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, Bolivia and Syria, said that for any agreement to be reached on a fossil fuel phase-out or phase-down, developed countries would need to take the lead in providing financial assistance to the poor.
Mary Robinson, chair of campaign group The Elders and former president of Ireland, asked for all countries to show true leadership, as Cop28 reached its critical final days. “Those at the negotiating table at Cop28 are steering the course of our shared future [but] the science tells us we are in grave danger of bequeathing our children a completely unliveable world,” said Robinson.
“The nations thwarting progress are those with the greatest stakes in fossil fuels but also the most plentiful resources to act. Saudi Arabia and allies are holding talks hostage. However it is not the only country hindering progress: the USA, China, the EU and India have been happy to hide in the shadows cast.”