FDR: Xmas comes early + short sales mystery solved?Just as I was about to speculate here whether Colin Padget would mix things up with a market hours release… BANG! We’ve got one. Excellent work keeping the market on its toes.
And clearly there are still additional techniques to be applied to maximize the news flow impact. I never would have thought we might double the width of the strike *before* substantially lengthening it. But that’s exactly the right order to release results.
Now, as to the mystery of the massive and growing short position. As a working assumption, in day-to-day life, we need to take people at their word. Sure, there are plenty of less-than-truthful individuals with whom we must interact. But even there, malice often isn’t their motivating principle.
Therefore, as Jetcard just mentioned on ceo.ca, a very straightforward explanation for the apparently suicidal action of the shorts is the mystery buyer of the whole $0.40 PP – which comes free trading very soon. Perhaps the PP buyer assured FDR they were in for the long run… AND indicated to FDR they would gently pre-sell enough shares to get their capital out well before the hold period ended.
Is this evilly clever behavior by the PP buyer? We all wish we could be so clever. Spinning straw into gold, or at least parlaying a brief few months of commitment of capital into a free ride holding ~ 3 million clear title FDR shares. I guess the buyer’s PP is held at a big brokerage that had no problem advancing house credit – or at least no problem believing in Antino’s potential.
Is this unethical? Hardly. FDR got their PP money. And who knows just how critical that money might have been if the stock market (or gold price) had collapsed the next day?
Afterwards, the short selling allowed new FDR shareholders to get in at prices where they could justify to themselves a big commitment - and then bring their (lucky) friends and neighbors along. Just like first feeding in small sticks onto a growing campfire rather than large ones. And FDR’s share price was strong enough throughout to allow the bigger $0.80 bought deal, with no warrant.
In my first job I covered the syndication desk sometimes, and I got to know a very smart, lovable rascal of a broker who specialized in flipping new issues into the market for a small profit the instant syndication confirmed he owned them. I suppose it was people like him the four-month hold period was meant to defang. But really, it’s all part of the magic of a free market. The best defence against abuse is to have a strong company. Which Padget and friends do have.
About the only potential downside if this FDR scenario is true is the lack of a short-squeeze to push FDR’s price higher. Although a quick removal of the short position in the early January history report would serve as a pretty good starting gun too. Merry Christmas to all, and sugar plum dreams.