RE:Benedictus My Take On Your 2 Qsphantom666 wrote: Pilot Plant funding - push the SP to .60 by February 10th for $10.66 million in warrants due! First half due on the 10th second on the 18th.Year high is .40 so .60 might not be that far fetched! Insider buying could be halted due to self imposed Blackout periods.
I am assuming the .60's will be extended with a reduced strike. The 5.2M April .25s could bring in $1.3M but they would need one heck of a catalyst to get the sp above that level. I imagine there's a lot of buyer's regret shares stuck in that .20 - .25 zone that will prove to be a significant resistance hurdle. So, it's plausible those are also extended at a reduced strike.
The black out period was from around the end of October to a few days after ER, so there's been ample time for insiders to buy on the open market at depressed prices. Again, based on prior purchases it has been surprising to see a virtual lack of participation.
The company still needs to answer how they fully fund the pilot plant and initiate a commercial roll out of fertilizer products in 2024. From what we know the plant capex is about $5M and Ian adamantly said they will fund via grants, cash from operations and debt. Without confirmation that grant funding has been obtained, we must assume the $3.2M credit line will be fully tapped plus they will need to generate roughly $2M in cash from operations, which I expect will take 6 quarters unless the fertilizer sales prove to be significant.
The smarter route is to defer the pilot plant construction for a year or two and focus on the fertilizer rollout, which, if successful, could meaningfully improve the margin profile of the business and enable a far more visible path toward funding the plant.
We must keep in mind that LaFarge has no skin in the game and is committing nothing to this project and actually wins by getting preferred pricing on the pozglass offering slim margins to PLAN even after construction is complete. The carbon tax pricing increases projected to come into effect should mean companies like LaFarge are extremely motivated to bring forward projects that can mitigate their growing carbon taxcosts and yet PLAN appears to be taking all the buildout risks for a minimal payoff and will still be fully dependent on LaFarge validating the tech, since PLAN committed to sell all of the output to only LaFarge.
Overall, I am far more excited about the fertilizer opportunity and hope they release very positive trial results along with details on their planned commercial rollout. Just my take.