RE:RE:RE:RE:Sooooo...Where is the Market Right Nowthose are fair comments.
My post on the market was just one newsletter's view that offer an opposing view to 'experienced' approach of longing bond in the last 12 months. In that post, i didn't offer financial advice or personal recommendation. I didn't say there would be no crash and go full steam ahead. As in anything in life, timing is everything. If one was overly cautious over the past +12 months, he would miss out some spectacular gain. I'm sure posters here are above average investors, and should understand risk vs reward at their personal level. If someone is willing to give advices and forecast, he should be congratulated if his prediction came true and call out if his prediction didn't pan out. I was just calling out on experience's approach for 2023. Who knows, he could be right in 2024. Like all nay sayers, their clock is always correct twice a day. In the media, youtubes, it's all dooms day predictions. Porn sell, fear porn sell even better.
Yes, we are entering unseen territory, current national, state/provincial, municipal debt are at insane, unpayable level, for all nations around the world. Applying past financial 'experience' going forward may not be all that applicable, similarly like assuming interest rate manipulation by the fed would work again as in the past. Of course, being overly cautious is a safe bet but may not be the most rewarding bet. For his age, experienced's approach may be correct for his personal level as he likely didn't own any nor advised on the magnificent 7 stocks. That's why we stay abreast of world news because it will affect our investment, and even way of life. My advice is take in as much info as you can, and formulate your own strategy base on your own financial level, your risk tolerance level, and your family planning as we can't take it with us as we exit this world.
Torontojay wrote: Mrbb, you should know better than to talk about the S&P 500 as a benchmark for a healthy economy. If you remove the magnificent 7, the stock market did not do as well as you suggested. Many investors on here are stock pickers and they don't invest in the index. In fact, if you were a small cap picker and you picked stocks in Canada, then you underperformed. Let's be fair and honest.
It's important to remain humble in all of this. I don't have a crystal ball either but I'm not going to sit and say the S&P 500 is pushing higher in 2024 because there are no more risks ahead. I'd like to remind readers that in 2001, the US had a mild recession, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined 50% and 78% peak to trough respectively. The last time I checked, recessions occur more than 50% of the time after the last raise hike. In the last 12 major hiking cycles since 1957, 5 times a recession occurred after the Fed pivot! That is significant and it tells me that there are still risks ahead. Finally, I'd like to remind people that the P/E ratio on the S&P 500 is 26 and higher than it was pre-covid. We are getting back to frothy levels and that poses several challenges ahead.