RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:My Views On TLG In 2024crow27 wrote: Much of what you are worring about is pretty well known. Justin in many videos has mentioned that we are going to be somewhere in that 250,000 ounces per year range for about 25 to 30 years. Most likely higher grade for the first few years to get a quick payback. Sooooooo you can see that our 11.2 million indicated drops to around about 6 to 7 million minable. This is already known folks ........................ no guessing required.
Thinking that it would be around 1 billion dollars or higher in capex is a joke also ........................ we have hundreds of millions of dollars already built. I believe Justin said this existing infrastructure is worth north of 500 million US dollars.
Soooooo I'm thinking we should be somewhere much lower, lets say 500 to 700 million capex.
All you should be guessing at is how high gold will be going ........................... we are so close to $2,100.00 already and the big rally has not even started.
Getting finacing and a partner will not be hard at all with what we know already.
Just worry about the price of gold and where you are going to put the money you will be making on this stock.
Gold is getting ready to go much, much higher and TLG will ride its coattails.
Lets see the FS in Feb and see if what Justin has already been telling us is the truth.
"....our 11.2 million indicated drops to around about 6 to 7 million minable..."
Could be, but let's wait until we see the total proven and probable reserves is in black and white in the actual feasibility study. Also, keep in mind that this is AuEq, so it will be a mix of gold, silver, and copper, and the cash flow it eventually produces will be influenced by the prices of all three components (except for any ounces that may be streamed in full to a streaming company).
"Thinking that it would be around 1 billion dollars or higher in capex is a joke also..."
I estimated initial capex at between $700M and $1B (go read my post again if you wish), and I'm feeling pretty confident that it will be in that ballpark. SKE is also a brownfield project with a lot of existing infrastructure, and the FS estimate for its CAPEX is just over $700M. I think TLG's project will cost as least that much up to first pour.
"All you should be guessing at is how high gold will be going ........ we are so close to $2,100.00 already and the big rally has not even started."
Here's a chart of the price of gold since 1973 (when the USD went off the gold standard ). Gold is already near it's all-time high. Of course it could go much higher, but I like to assume that it will not and take a look at the project at current gold prices to err on the conservative side.
One final point:
To be clear, I do think TLG has multi-bagger potential. If you'll notice, I'm just commenting on the period between now and just before TLG announces they have obtained all financing, permitting and approvals and are preparing for the start of construction (i.e, beginning of Stage 4 of the Lassonde Curve). It is at that point that the share price could (and likely will) take off provided they don't sell the company beforehand or enter into a JV agreement like Osisko did with Gold Fields re. their Windfall project. Others on this BB apparently either don't use the Lassonde Curve as a major tool to make buy and sell decisions re. junior explorers / firt mine build companies or didn't realize that TLG itself is projecting the start of Stage 4 at some point in 2025. Thus, I think it's at that point that the share price could really rocket upwards, much moreso that the anticipated release of the FS in Q1 2024.