RE:Capex Guesses temple, I like to follow stocks like TLG and SKE as they move through the release of their FS and subsequent financing / permitting / appprovals process looking for an entry point where I believe the final permitting / approvals and start of mine construction will be announced in the near future so I can get in before such announcements are made. Then, the main risks (outside of the unforseeable) are can the company complete the project up to first pour on time and on budget, so good quality management is key. Thus, I also like to observe how management performs during the financing / permitting / approvals process to see if there are any delays or slip-ups along the way.
I'd sell sometime around first pour, so sustaining capex is not an issue for me. In fact, a company underestimating sustaining capex numbers in their FS would actually work to my advantage given my strategy.
Re. Joint Venture. That's another reason why I don't mind waiting. You hear so many overly-bulllish stories about how easy it will be to finance a given project, obtain all needed permits and approvals by a certain date, etc., then all of a sudden, boom - the company is sold for far less than investors think it's worth (e.g. MOZ, SBB) or the company decides it doesn't want to go it alone and brings in a JV partner to help fund the thing (e.g. OSK partnering with Gold Fields on Windfall).
Also, for the record, I stated between $700M and $1B CAD (not $750M - $1B) - Don't want Potadvisor claiming I was wrong if the number presented is in the low $700s.