RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Interesting Graph Regarding Gasoline ConsumptionDon't blame you for being cynical on depletion, but the truth is we have all benefited from cheap money and improved oil extraction technology the last decade approx.
Most investors and even prominent industry bankers back in early 2000 or so (Google Matt Simmons, "Twilight in the Desert" ) missed the effect of fracking and directional drilling would have on future production.
Most people scoffed at Matt Simmons assertions of peak production in Ghawar , Saudi's monster field. Simmons did not live long enough to see the overall effects of directional drilling combined with improved hydraulic fracking. I think he died around 2010.
Just because Matt Simmons predictions proved incorrect, does not mean his logic was flawed. Like many investors he had no way to factor in future technology.
One thing he understood was depletion rates. The irony of increased production (tight oil) is it comes with increased depletion rates. Many of the operators in the Permian, Bakken, and other tight oil plays are like hamsters on a spinning wheel. They have to keep burning cash and poking holes in decreasing quality formations to keep production flat in some cases. Drilling keeps improving, multi directional pad drilling etc, but they are still poking a lot of holes and burning a lot of cash flow to keep the production going.
Just for kicks lets consider global oil production is balanced with demand.
100 million barrels a day, every ten days a billion barrels produced / consumed.
36.5 billion barrels per year needs replaced for humanity to break even on oil reserves.
When viewed in the above context of annual production, Exxons's 8 billion barrel Guyana find needs to be repeated several times to replace one year of global production, and we have not even factored in depletion yet :-)
In closing, again I understand your being cynical on depletion, but when you look at the big picture of discoveries, the last several years average of around 20 billion per year of discoveries is not enough oil to replace production.
Pretty safe bet that 6% to 25 % reservoir depletion rates will exceed EV demand destruction, it is just a matter of time in my opinion.
Cheers,
Nukester