Something to read if out of Champane..lol
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YEAR AHEAD
Canada will put the pedal to the metal to become an EV powerhouse
Canada is poised to become a leader in EVs, but we’ll need to move fast
Meena Bibra
December 28, 2023
Meena Bibra is a senior policy adviser at Clean Energy Canada.
Canada has big ambitions to build one of the world’s powerhouse supply chains for EV and battery technology. In 2022, the government released its Critical Minerals Strategy—a road map toward making our country a leading global supplier of materials needed for renewable energy and high-tech products. It’s backed by $3.8 billion in industry supports, such as mining research and infrastructure, and new roads into remote but mineral-rich areas. In 2024, we’re going to learn if all these efforts are paying off—or if we need to redouble them.
The opportunity is enormous. The number of EVs on the road is rising quickly. In 2017, fewer than one per cent of new vehicle registrations in Canada were for EVs; by the third quarter of 2023, that figure was 13 per cent. But other countries are also in the running to become major players in the EV business, leaving Canada in a high-speed race.
We’re starting from a good position, at least. In 2022, GM opened its first full-scale Canadian EV plant in Ingersoll, Ontario. Four companies have recently invested in massive battery plants in Canada: E-One Moli in Maple Ridge, B.C.; Volkswagen in St. Thomas, Ontario; Stellantis in Windsor, Ontario; and Swedish battery developer Northvolt, which announced a $7-billion plant east of Montreal. Northvolt chose Quebec in part because of its access to abundant, clean hydroelectricity. We also have the sixth-largest proven reserves of lithium in the world, as well as significant amounts of other minerals that are critical in battery cell production, like nickel and cobalt. Altogether, Clean Energy Canada’s research shows that our country’s EV supply chain could support up to 250,000 jobs by 2030 and add $48 billion to the economy annually.
But in 2024 and beyond, we’ll need to address our weak spots, and fast. For example, we need to improve the efficiency of permitting and impact assessments for major mining projects. This must be done in environmentally and socially responsible ways, with the support of remote and Indigenous communities. We also need to address the huge expense of extraction. We struggle to mine and refine lithium because most of our reserves are found in hard rock, and are often located in remote areas, inaccessible by road. That makes them costlier to extract, so even with our abundant reserves, nations like Brazil and Portugal produce more lithium than we do, despite having smaller reserves.
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This year, we’ll see if our bottleneck can start to clear with government support. The Critical Minerals Strategy includes $1.5 billion in funding for infrastructure investments in our mineral supply chain, with a focus on high-priority deposits like lithium, graphite, nickel, cobalt and copper. I anticipate more companies setting up in Canada, but a boom won’t happen overnight; in fact, it will only happen if EV and battery facilities can get the right workers with the right skills. Fortunately, there’s already headway on this. The B.C. government is creating a college program for EV technicians, and the federal government recently funded a national program, to be delivered through colleges, so workers can upgrade their skills for emerging fields like clean tech.
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This year will also give us a better sense of how much governments will support homegrown clean tech and battery companies. I want to see them fund Canadian startups like Nano One Materials and E3 Lithium, which make materials for lithium ion batteries, and battery-recycling companies like Lithion Technologies and LiCycle, which prevent battery cells from going to landfills. The key will be to balance foreign investment with Canadian companies.
Luckily, EVs appear to be a rare subject on which the major political parties see eye to eye, probably because of the huge economic benefits they bring. Ontario secured enough money to attract the Volkswagen and Stellantis gigafactories because Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives partnered with the federal Liberals, and that’s encouraging. But collaboration like this could be in jeopardy in 2024 if EVs become politicized. Already, Donald Trump has said EVs will destroy the auto industry. If EVs become a flashpoint in the culture wars, we’ll all lose.
The federal government wants every car sold in Canada to be an EV by 2035. That can happen; the industry is enjoying a network effect now that they’re becoming widespread. As people see others driving EVs, they’ll become more common, more accepted, more normal. Competition between brands will lower prices. Canada now stands on the precipice of a remarkable economic opportunity. If we lean into it, we’ll all get to share in the spoils.
This article is part of the Year Ahead 2024, which is Maclean’s annual look at everything that’s coming your way next year. You can buy the print version right here.
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YEAR AHEAD 2024
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The Year Ahead: Politics in 2024
Immigration, LGBTQ+ rights and language laws will raise provincial hackles, while Justin Trudeau’s long-time leadership might be on shaky ground. Meanwhile, the next Oval Office occupant will have a ripple effect on Canada’s relationship with its closest neighbour.
Emily Landau
December 28, 2023
(Illustration by Anna Minzhulina)
1. Justin Trudeau will face new challengers—both within his party and beyond
Many political insiders are predicting a federal election in 2024. But after nine years in power and three election wins, the bloom is off the rose for Justin Trudeau, who’s staring down generation-high interest rates, a dire housing crisis and his lowest approval ratings ever. A recent Angus Reid poll suggests most Canadians, including almost half of Liberal respondents, think he should step down before the next election; potential successors include Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, Foreign Affairs Minister Mlanie Joly and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, who’s already floated the idea of a leadership run. Meanwhile, Trudeau’s Conservative counterpart, Pierre Poilievre, will keep picking up popularity as he promises to lower the cost of living and calls for an end to carbon taxes. The CPC also stands to benefit from a redrawn federal electoral map, set to take effect in April.
2. The Liberals will prepare for a Trump victory in the U.S.
MSNBC is prepping its electoral map, the New York Times is dusting off its prediction needle and all eyes are on America as the Democrats prepare to square off against an as-yet-unknown Republican adversary. Should Donald Trump or another ultra-conservative prospect win in November, Canada might expect an influx of political refugees, increased economic and diplomatic isolationism and a rise in far-right movements on home soil. Foreign Affairs Minister Mlanie Joly has said the Trudeau government is readying a game plan for every scenario.
3. Danielle Smith will try to create an Alberta pension plan
Smith won the Alberta premiership last spring on a platform powered by anti-federalist sentiment. One of her top promises was that Alberta would pull out of the Canadian Pension Plan and create its own, with lower contributions and higher returns. Support is growing for the idea, and Smith plans to hold a referendum next year. A report commissioned by the province suggests that if it defects, it’s entitled to 53 per cent of the CPP’s $375 billion in assets—a figure disputed by the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, which estimates the province would get 16 per cent, and economist Trevor Tombe, who puts the number between 20 and 25 per cent.
4. LGBTQ+ rights will be an election issue
In 2023, both New Brunswick and Saskatchewan tabled legislation requiring schools to receive parental consent before allowing students to use their preferred name or gender identity at school. These moves are part of a burgeoning movement called “parental rights,” which has received considerable pushback from students, parents and educators who claim that kids should be free to make identity choices without their parents’ involvement. Both provinces have elections scheduled for October, and the issue will no doubt be a litmus test for voters’ enthusiasm for—or abhorrence of—social conservatism.
5. The Greenbelt will haunt Doug Ford
Ontario’s premier spent much of 2023 touting the Greenbelt expansion, an ambitious plan that would allow urban development on a ribbon of the province’s pristine farmland. After months of outcry from farmers and conservationists, allegations that he favoured certain developers and a damning report from Ontario’s auditor general, Ford walked back the deal. But he’s not off the hook yet: the RCMP has launched a probe into the deal and allegations of corruption. (Ford has denied any criminal activity took place and promised to co-operate with the investigation.) In a symbolic gesture of regret, his government is introducing laws to ensure any further Greenbelt changes will occur via the legislature rather than regulations.
6. New policies will detect Pretendians
Last year, several notable Canadians were accused of feigning or fudging their Indigenous identity—alleged Pretendians included former judge Mary-Ellen Turpel-Lafond, ex–Memorial University president Vianne Timmons and folk music icon Buffy Sainte-Marie. To deter future fakers, a number of universities are implementing Indigenous identity verification systems for future hires, with requirements such as signed affidavits, government ID and references from family and Elders. This year, that practice will likely extend to school boards (the Toronto District School Board says it’s developing new procedures for verification) and the private sector (the Saskatchewan NDP is pushing for a policy requiring employers to independently confirm Indigenous identity claims).
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7. Pharmacare could splinter a fragile political alliance
In 2022, the federal NDP and Liberals entered into a shaky coalition: in exchange for the NDP’s support, the Liberals agreed to push for affordable housing and a universal pharmacare program. A year and a half later, the Libs hadn’t come through on the pharmacare promise, and the NDP was threatening to pull its support unless the party made good. By the end of 2023, the parties had confirmed that the legislation will be tabled by March. A new report suggests that a single-payer drug plan will cost the government $11 billion in its first year, but create net savings of up to $1.4 billion for the economy, since the feds will be able to negotiate on bulk drug prices.
8. Canada will welcome half a million immigrants
The government plans to welcome 485,000 new permanent residents this year—roughly 1.2 per cent of the current population—and 500,000 in both 2025 and 2026. The goal is to boost the economy, fill labour shortages and compensate for Canada’s lagging fertility rate. The problem, critics say, is that Canada doesn’t have the housing, public resources or resettlement services to absorb that many newcomers in such a short period of time. But Immigration Minister Marc Miller insists that the influx of new Canadians is essential to solve deeply entrenched problems like the housing crisis: the government’s intention is to bring in the kinds of skilled workers who can build new housing stock.
9. Quebec will court Francophone newcomers
Under the Canada-Quebec Accord, established in 1991, Quebec sets its own immigration targets. This year, that means 60,000 new international students and economic migrants—but, as part of Premier Franois Legault’s aggressive francophone-first policy, all temporary foreign workers will have to pass a French-language exam before they’re admitted. This is in keeping with the government’s goal of having 89 per cent of the Quebec workforce qualify as French-language speakers (a huge bump from the 2023 goal of 66 per cent). The move has been controversial in Quebec, where business owners say the new requirements will add more barriers to hiring.
10. The federal government will pay for its past
Last summer, a federal judge approved the largest class-action settlement in Canadian history: a whopping $23.4 billion to compensate some 300,000 Indigenous children and families who were victims of Canada’s discriminatory child welfare system. The Canadian Human Rights Tribunal ruled that, going back to 1991, the claimants in the case were adversely affected by racist government policies and, in some cases, denied services altogether in areas like health care and education. Each claimant is entitled to $40,000 plus interest, and payments will start rolling out this year. On top of that, the government has also agreed to set aside an additional $20 billion for long-term child welfare reform.
This article is part of the Year Ahead 2024, which is Maclean’s annual look at everything that’s coming your way next year. You can buy the print version right here.
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