Article from last June I often find it helpful to revisit articles from the past that are still relevant. Last June the media was pumping the likelihood of a recession in 2024. Not much has changed as media is still pumping the recession mantra.
Large part of the article delves into the history of US presidents getting a second term, in relation to recessions and overall economy. One statement in the article stands out for me:
"“It’s not the absolute level of the economy. It’s the direction of the economy six months out from the elections that really influences the vote”
If true, this suggests the economy needs to be perceived as showing strength by early May. Essentially 5 months from now. Coincidentally, this appears to align with the slide of oil prices in December. Historically when the price of oil slides, it takes six months for the effect to be seen in the economy.
Based on the above and other factors such as media beginning to downplay significance of the middle east dustup, OPEC re-starting monthly meetings, and others, I think we see the narrative shift to an improving economy by month end. I further think this sparks a rise in oil prices as economic numbers improve.
Here's a link to the article from last June....
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/a-2023-recession-wouldn-t-be-so-bad-for-biden-a-downturn-in-2024-would-1.1934833