RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Back to our regularly scheduled program Intrigued by this statement
Trials are always binary ( Yes or No, excluding the odd maybe of course)
A coin toss always come with roughly 50/50 odds. 0.50 + 0.50 = 1.00
Some might argue that in the case of this 3b Trial, that by all indications " is exceeding expectations", the odds of a positive outcome are far from 50/50. Perhaps 95%/5% or even higher.
Of course .95 + .05 still = 1.00
And of course we WILL get an outcome - that is a 100% certainty.
Some will say that could be in a few months, while others will say " fuggetabodit" for 24+ months.
Investors who want to participate in potentially overnight outsized gains will need to choose WHEN to place their bets... but ideally they need to do so BEFORE the outcome is announced/ finalized .
So investors need to ask themselves three questions beyond just the probability of rolling/ flipping a Yes
Odds of early Yes? - X%
Odds of a late Yes? - Y%
Odds of a No ? Z %
then place your bets accordingly.
If you believe strongly that it will be a late Yes, AND you hate dead money, AND you believe others will not bid up the price prior to " the event" - then by all means roll that dice too ( but make no mistake iguessing on timing is a risk in itself )
Just don't try to convince me that that is the best strategy for someone wishing to be on the right side of a binary outcome.
The people that are blind to early outcomes, bid-ups etc probably shouldn't be in the casino at all.
And just to beat this analogy like a dead #12 horse, casinos have the odds stacked in their favor. I believe that in the case of Spectral, the odds are heavily in the favor of the gambler - but only put at risk what you can afford to lose... because nothing is certain... there are only probabilities.
MM