Navel gazing and thinking out loudWow, so far 2024 has been a real treat.
Still no news.
A Montreal everything-bagel version of a corprate update to send us off for Christmas was nice.
It was a sign of life. But within it was the sound of a dozen small wheels spinning and no proof of traction at all. Perfectly lubricated and staying in place. Barely a vibration to indicate what was happening.
But I have faith still. After losing about 70% maybe faith is almost all that I have. But it is still something.
The bad news cycle is a self feeding organism. It is easy to pile on a bad news story. Takes no courage, no imagination, no thinking really. Just say what she said or he wrote yesterday and put it in a different light slightly. Then submit for publication and start over. If you are shorting then you grab the endless array of crappy headlines and post them to crush the spirit of others. Yes, I hate you all for that.
Something needs to break the cycle.
Not just for CRE but for the sector entirely. There needs to be a few good news stories and green shoots and then suddenly the Holy-Moley there isn't a glut of Lithium afterall News Parade can start.
It is how the boom bust cycle happens right? Partly fundamentals and partly froth, fiction, faith and fomo.
That day will come.
In oil regions, the despair of the trough and the ecstasy of the peak of a boom/bust is palpable. The mood sours. The wind blows cold. The oxygen seems thin. The gloom seems endless. Until it isn't.
One thing that I wonder is what caused that run to 2.03 back in the Fall? Do we think it was just the anticipation that a deadline would actually be met. That a milestone would be marked with an announcement? That things would actually happen when they were promised?
Or, could it be that there were signs of an early deal and early buying behaviour that maybe dried up as a result of government announcements or new incentives or financing wrinkles that slowed things down?
It is curious. And it could very well be that it was just fools (hoping, yes me) and thinking the schedule that was implied would be kept. I firmly believe that the conversations that have been happening in earnest all year haven't stopped. They have just taken on more facets and complexities as more players get into the game and the game changes with gov't involvement etc.
Spot price timing killed the buzz. No question. But it isn't everything. Spot isn't real for OEMs. It is inconveniently distracting.
How much of a response the SP will have when an announcement comes is very debatable. Hopefully there is a very fast follow between some other drilling/testing results and financing and progress to change the channel for CRE anyway. It cannot just be a 20% bump and then a gradual fallback again. If that is the case, may lord have mercy...
The time will come.
HIBL