RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Wholesale and Retail trade jobs I would say Canada is already in one but the US still has some legs left. I'll explain why the lags are a bit longer this time. The housing market in the US is in better shape with about 50% of households only paying a mortgage rate of 4.% or less. In addition, during covid, many homeowners refinanced at historical low interest rates which give them protection for a very long time. Up to 30 years for those that qualify.
The major problem I see in the US is the fiscal deficit situation has gotten out of control. Bidenomics has kept the economy away from recession territory because government expenditures is counted in gdp. If the government decides to spend more than they receive in taxes, they can artificially inflate gdp numbers to make it appear that everything is ok. An honest Economist can see past this and not be fooled by what financial media outlets are reporting. I'll give you an example to show you what I mean.
Nominal gdp in the US is ~ 6% of which 4% of that comes directly from government expenditures. If we subtract 4% from the government, then nominal gdp growth was only 2% with inflation at 3%. In other words, the rest of the economy contracted by 1%.
real gdp (excluding government) = 6% -4% - 3% = -1%
The government cannot spend at this pace forever because the interest expense on the 34 trillion of treasuries is hovering around $1 trillion! That is absolutely mind blowing. If they continue to spend, it will lead to more inflation down the road. If they cut back on expenses then it will lead to a recession.
I'll leave off with one final remark.
The federal reserve increases rates because they are worried about inflation. They cut rates because they are afraid of a recession.