RE:Something To keep an Eye OnExperienced,
I agree about Taiwan needing to be watched closely, but I do not feel a sudden surprise attack is likely.
Why?
Taiwan is extremely fortified. While China could overwhelm Taiwan's defences in a short time frame, the truth is China would pay a very heavy price and very little would be left of Taiwan when the fighting stopped. Long range strikes into China's mainland would be assured. The only reason for China to attack Taiwan would be for immediate existential reasons, or plain and simply Pride.
The pride argument would keep me up at night if I was a U.S. military planner. I know very little of Chinese culture, but what I firmly understand is Chinese pride. Saving face is of utmost importance in Chinese society. Chinese will go to great lengths to avoid a physical struggle if they can save face and pursue other options. Besides, why enter a military struggle when there is a better way???
Placing myself in Xi Jinping's position, there is a better way. This better way involves patience and wisdom. China needs to think in terms of decades as oppossed to election cycles. Xi Jinping does not need to take Taiwan during his lifetime to cement his place in Chinese history. It may well happen that way, but Xi Jinping merely needs to be credited with advancing China's global standing and furthering the process of the taking back Taiwan. Either way Xi Jinping saves face.
So what is the long term plan / better way ?
Weaken the United States from within with unrestricted, unorthodox warfare, over long time frames. Corrupt U.S. leaders with financial entanglements. (Bi-partisan chinese business tours) Corrupt U.S. youth with easily accesible and cheap drugs. (Fentanyl)
Corrupt U.S. college students with on campus organizations (Confucious institute)
Gain control of legacy U.S. media companies, TV, Movies, Magazines. Propagate and control narratives that divide the United States along existing fissures. Exploit racial issues, fund Black Lives Matter, exploit sexual orientations, fund LGQTB organizations. Weaken and demoralize the entire U.S. society in any conceivable fashion. After decades of this the U.S. will wither into a stuttering shell of its former self. Eventually Taiwan will see the demise of the U.S. and vote to be annexed by China, again face saving, this time for Taiwans leaders.
Sound familiar? Like maybe I am channeling Paul Harvey form decades past?
The truth is the plan is not new and China did not invent it. The plan is evil in nature and existed in numerous forms long before the CCP ever existed.
The battle is spiritual in nature and the enemy is not just China, but the U.S. deep state as well. Evil comes in many forms. Arm yourself with truth and humility and enjoy the show, it going to be interesting to say the least :-)
Cheers,
Nukester