GREY:VITFF - Post by User
Comment by
MVargason Jan 15, 2024 1:58pm
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Post# 35827370
RE:RE:Expectations
RE:RE:ExpectationsIt's difficult to put a positive spin on the Q4 results.
A few weeks ago I speculated that the company would stack 2.6 million tonnes of ore on the HLP in Q4 at a grade of 0.72 g/tonne. 2.6 million tonnes was up from 2.5 in Q2 and 2.3 in Q3 where the production was impacted by wildfires. The grade was up from 0.65 g/tonne in Q3 based on management comments on the Q3 conference call where it was stated that Q4 grade was expected to be 0.72 g/tonne.
Based on 2.6 million tonnes at a grade of 0.72 g/tonne, 45,700 recoverable ounces would have been placed on the HLP in Q4.
Actual recoverable ounces placed on the HLP in Q4 = 2,100,000 x 0.65 / 31.1 x 0.76 = 33,400 oz.
This means that the reported 41,982 oz produced in Q4 included another large drawdown from inventory.
So placing just 33,400 oz on the HLP in Q4 is quite a bearish number. What also is disturbing is the ongoing deception from management touting in Q4 interviews how well the mine is performing and assurances of better grades in Q4 and beyond when the reported grades in Q3 and Q4 are the same as the reserve grade.
The Q4 financials will not be very good. Paying down just the mandatory $11 million on the Term Facility in Q4 is much less than the $25 million per quarter needed to pay off the debt by the end of 2025.