RE:Is Arc a takeover candidate?rico91 wrote:
"Is Arc a takeover candidate? Maybe, I think , but by who??My guess would be either CNQ or TOU. Of the 2 I would say CNQ would be more likely."
NO.........NOT in my opinion.....odds & facts favor that it isn't & wouldn't be one. BUT as almost anything could be "possible" in the Canadian oil patch, I would put that possibility at about 15% or highly unlikely. Imho, i continue to see Arc as an aggressive acquirer of assets and therefore them to continue with its aggressive M&A strategy. I would also rate & put Arc as one of the surviving "Dirty Dozen" operators that would probsbly end up as a "Super Major" in 5 to 10 years from now. And one of those twelve who will end up managing the entire portion of the Albertan O&G fields along side the likes of Suncor, Canadian UnNatural, Cenovus, Tormaline & others.
As for CNQ being possibly interested in someone like Arc, i would say NO.....definitely NOT now anyway. Why? Because Arc is NOT CNQ's typical acquisition target. Too expensive, meaning valuation not despressed enough AND too large. Now the latter would not be a deal breaker or stumbling block for someone as large as CNQ to prevent a TO of Arc, but if you look at the MO of CNQ mgmt ovder they ears with regards to their M&A........it just doesnt fit the bill.
The real queston you should be asking here is, WHO Arc will be looking to take out next! I did post similar comments not to long ago on here......but no one replied or was knowledgeable enough (besides myself of course 8) to give an appropriate response. So forget about WHO will buyout Arc, becasue imo it won't happen, and look at who ARc will be interested in next. As i mentioned previously, they are DUE SOON and would expect somekind of acquisition from them sometime in 2024. And there a few names that would fit in prefectly with Arc's M&A strategy.......
GLTA