BBDB859 wrote: Hey Pablo.
You're expecting too much too soon from EM/BD. From where I'm standing, they are doing a remarkable job.
Just from Jan. 2021 to now. They've taken the $10.3B LTD, down to $5.57B. They've doubled the size of their Service Centers, and renovated the rest of them for easily $300M to $400M. They've built Pearson to the tune of $500M to $600M, and they've paid their RVG of $130M due, to the CRJ commitment. Plus they've got $1B cash in Reserve today.
What, you are expecting from Management right now is impossible? So just to put this into perpective.
From Jan 2021 to 2023, they've paid off $1B of the LTD from the +FCF of the those years. Then they've paid for and rebuilt this company with another $1B (See above costs for the Construction, etc., numbers).
Therefore they've made $2B in +FCF in that period from Jan. 2021 to Dec.2023. Please DONT compare the S/P of today, to the accomplishments of the company so far, since Jan. 2021.
The share price will take care of itself very soon. I'll discuss it further down here.
The future of the Pure Play for the next 3 years is going to look like this. First, they'll get $300M of +FCF, plus their Inventory Investment
from Q4/23. As well, the reserves will be $1.2B, and the +
FCF will be $300M from Q4/23. So the $300M +FCF is going to LTD.
Then in 2024 we'll have a +FCF figure of $700M (easily as u know, just by Revs increases of 9% etc., & inverse relation of savings from +FCF to LTD payments), which will also go to LTD.
Now at the end of Q4/24 we'll have $4.57B owing on the LTD. That should give us a savings of another $100M or more, from LTD annually interest payments going forward,
therefore increasing the +FCF for 2025. Now 2025. They'll start the year, with less Interest Payments on the LTD.
Very low CAPEX of say $350M. So this will increase +FCF for
Q4/2025 to the tune of $1B. So there you have the picture. That +FCF of 2025 will all go the LTD of $4.57B - $1B =
$3.57B of LTD at the end of 2025. What else are you expecting from them? This is real EQUITY for the Shareholders. The B's will now be worth something by the end of 2026.
Other than the the LTD, what else are you expecting them to think of? I think they're doing a great job. Who cares about the shareholders, and the S/P right now.
Management knows that, that will all take care of itself. Save the Millions, and the Billions will take care of themselves. Not giving the shareholders the most we can right now, as you're suggesting in your post, to prop up the share price, and get rid of preferred shares etc. The preferreds can sit there, the share buybacks can sit there, the S/P can linger, and management won't care and
Rightfully so IMHO. So enjoy the ride,
of where EM/BD are taking the pure play, and take advantage of all these shorters #$%#$@ with the SP.
Btw
Johnney welcome back. But lay off, on the unnecessary posting please.
PabloLafortune wrote: To expand on what I posted earlier,
why would you run a company with way too much debt where most of the cashflow goes to paying interest and essentially not have the option to a) invest more in the future or b) pay dividends or c) buyback shares or d) acquire companies or e) buy back preferred shares whose dividends are not tax deductible; and where you can't afford a major recession or industry downturn or a big drop in backlog; when you can replace that debt with equity AND the share price would rise (and if the share price dropped, you would buy back the shares at a price lower than you issued them for) Nobody.
They've simply not been proactive enough to reduce the debt - the recent debt refinancing totally sent the wrong signal. Moreover, it makes Martel look like the COO, not the CEO as he's either unable to do anything about it or oblivious to Bombardier's most pressing issue.
Meanwhile we are being entertained with daily delivery reports...
Anyway, I'm not selling but I'm not holding much hope of the stock getting to $100 any time soon either. I hope that I'm completely wrong and will be more than happy ($) to admit it. #Fanfan est toujours le gagnant