RE:RE:RE:Power of the buybacksAth is a great company with 0 debt and huge upside with the tmx coming online. Their buyback programs success is obvious considering last year's outperformance. They have large reserves and tax pools but the royalties they pay will increase dramatically in the coming years. Ath and tve currently have enterprise values that are within 10% of each other. In comparison tve has more upside than ath to the tmx because they produce more heavy oil thanks to the clearwater production. Tamarack also currently produces 25,000+ boe/day more than ath and will continue to do so for an extended period of time. Or roughly 80% more production. The clearwater independent study done shows production in clearwater can maintain 30,000+ barrels for up to 50 years which rivals athabasca reserves far beyond peak oil demand. With significant waterflood in place tamaracks declines will be optimal.
In summary the companies approximate enterprise values are relatively similar but Tamarack will dramatically outproduce athabasca over the next 15 years with more exposure to light oil and gas in the Charlie lake. I'm a fan of athabasca but currently Tamarack is just too cheap. The dust will settle on the non core asset sales shortly and shares that were issued at a premium to purchase quality assets will be bought back and canceled.