Buy Buy BuyPretending to be an analyst here is what I come up with for EDV - '24.
Numbers taken from latest year end, some from last year , and some I invented (opps not suppose to say that!) .
Dividend $200m
Share buy back $70m (2023)
Royalties $150m
Capital Expendture $315m
Exploration $65m
Tax $360m (2023)
Total $1160m
Throw in $40m for office etc. Gives expences of $1.2 billion.
And with production of 1.25 m oz , and a realized price of ( my estimate for '24) $2200 /oz, together with a more or less cash cost ( all costs that will need to be paid this year - lots of AISC stuff is future cost) of $800 / oz , that gives, wait for it, a total 'income' of $1.75 billion.
Add divestments of perhaps $125m and we are left with a stunning $700m, um, left over.
Now maybe a real analyst would find some more expenses, and be more conservative on realized price ( EDV does have some price protections in place which could lower that number) , but even reducing that by $200m leaves enough to pay off all the debt. With the analysts having made an ave. target price of $37.58 on early 2023, and 2024 looking quite a little better production wise, and possibly gold price wise; seems the analysts are , if not on the same page, at least in the same ball park.
So seems to me the present share price is one for the ages. I have used up my lines of credit, and any 'normal' sources of cash to load up. And have sold some quite loved ( by me, and others) gold companies that don't have the potential for a big change like EDV. Seems to me a pretty quick 30% jump
back to 'normal' ($30 these days) is at hand. I am tempted to do a cash advance on my credit card. I figure the upcoming dividend ( Ex Div day 22 FEB 2024) would cover the outrageous CC interest charges for about 3 months.