RE:Is it a falling knife or is it just a knife on the floorI too was a buyer...at 57, 58, 61 and 65.....
Here is why: Low cost Chinese producers need the Li price to double for their operations to simply break even. How long can China subsidize a loosing industry while its own economy is imploding....they have done this before with other materials like pig iron...but only lasts for so long.
Restocking is going to happen...when, I have no idea. Could be a month or two or three -- timing is tough to figure out. When it happens Li goes up not only becuase demand increases -- it will go up because of all the supply curtailment that has been going on -- all the mines that have shuttered their production for now are contributing to a supply crunch in the future.
Valuation - we are basically being valued at approx. $100m CDN or $70m USD (ex-cash) -- even if you halve the NPV from $2+billion to $1billion we are trading at a 90+% discount -- i have been around enough materials companies to know this is a steal given our permitted status and many other details you all know about.
As for concerns about refining etc -- total red herring. The entire world knows the situation in terms of China controlling processing and refining right now (it will change) -- and that issue is factored into the economics of any deal that will be cut.
In my books -- these are the moments where you can really make $. I fully expect this stock to double in 12 months (most likely much sooner....)....and continue its upwards ascent as the sector recovers.
glta